Ongoing bilateral negotiations via the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, center on reciprocal tariff reductions for $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that talks are advancing toward implementation "at an early date," ahead of the scheduled September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington. Existing frameworks from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement have maintained suspended or capped tariffs, with China committing to agricultural purchases and export control adjustments through late 2026. These steps, combined with the absence of major escalations, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 88% implied probability for a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado88% probabilidad
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
31 dic 2026
88% probabilidad
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations via the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, center on reciprocal tariff reductions for $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that talks are advancing toward implementation "at an early date," ahead of the scheduled September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington. Existing frameworks from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement have maintained suspended or capped tariffs, with China committing to agricultural purchases and export control adjustments through late 2026. These steps, combined with the absence of major escalations, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 88% implied probability for a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$251,834Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations via the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, center on reciprocal tariff reductions for $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that talks are advancing toward implementation "at an early date," ahead of the scheduled September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington. Existing frameworks from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement have maintained suspended or capped tariffs, with China committing to agricultural purchases and export control adjustments through late 2026. These steps, combined with the absence of major escalations, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 88% implied probability for a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$251,834Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral negotiations via the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, center on reciprocal tariff reductions for $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that talks are advancing toward implementation "at an early date," ahead of the scheduled September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington. Existing frameworks from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement have maintained suspended or capped tariffs, with China committing to agricultural purchases and export control adjustments through late 2026. These steps, combined with the absence of major escalations, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 88% implied probability for a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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