Traders assign a 95.9% probability that the United States and China will avoid direct military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk aversion on both sides. Recent military-to-military talks have reached their strongest level in years, while preparations continue for a September 2026 leaders’ summit amid ongoing trade and technology negotiations. Both governments have prioritized gray-zone activities, such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and South China Sea maneuvers, over kinetic escalation, consistent with historical patterns of managing disputes below the threshold of open conflict. Deterrence remains anchored in economic interdependence and mutual recognition of high costs. Potential disruptors include a breakdown in summit preparations over Taiwan arms sales, an accidental collision during exercises, or rapid shifts in gray-zone pressure that prompt miscalculation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$207,993 Vol.
$207,993 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$207,993 Vol.
$207,993 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.9% probability that the United States and China will avoid direct military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk aversion on both sides. Recent military-to-military talks have reached their strongest level in years, while preparations continue for a September 2026 leaders’ summit amid ongoing trade and technology negotiations. Both governments have prioritized gray-zone activities, such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and South China Sea maneuvers, over kinetic escalation, consistent with historical patterns of managing disputes below the threshold of open conflict. Deterrence remains anchored in economic interdependence and mutual recognition of high costs. Potential disruptors include a breakdown in summit preparations over Taiwan arms sales, an accidental collision during exercises, or rapid shifts in gray-zone pressure that prompt miscalculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$207,993Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.9% probability that the United States and China will avoid direct military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk aversion on both sides. Recent military-to-military talks have reached their strongest level in years, while preparations continue for a September 2026 leaders’ summit amid ongoing trade and technology negotiations. Both governments have prioritized gray-zone activities, such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and South China Sea maneuvers, over kinetic escalation, consistent with historical patterns of managing disputes below the threshold of open conflict. Deterrence remains anchored in economic interdependence and mutual recognition of high costs. Potential disruptors include a breakdown in summit preparations over Taiwan arms sales, an accidental collision during exercises, or rapid shifts in gray-zone pressure that prompt miscalculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$207,993Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.9% probability that the United States and China will avoid direct military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk aversion on both sides. Recent military-to-military talks have reached their strongest level in years, while preparations continue for a September 2026 leaders’ summit amid ongoing trade and technology negotiations. Both governments have prioritized gray-zone activities, such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and South China Sea maneuvers, over kinetic escalation, consistent with historical patterns of managing disputes below the threshold of open conflict. Deterrence remains anchored in economic interdependence and mutual recognition of high costs. Potential disruptors include a breakdown in summit preparations over Taiwan arms sales, an accidental collision during exercises, or rapid shifts in gray-zone pressure that prompt miscalculation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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