Polymarket traders are pricing a 45% implied probability for WTI crude oil settling between $60-$70 per barrel in April 2026, reflecting expectations of persistent global supply overhang amid subdued demand growth. Current spot WTI trades near $71/bbl, with the futures curve in mild contango signaling lower forward prices through 2026, as US shale output hits record 13.4 million bpd and non-OPEC supply surges. Recent OPEC+ extension of voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 offers temporary support, but weakening Chinese industrial activity and EV adoption cap upside. Key catalysts include the December 5 OPEC+ meeting, weekly EIA inventory data, and IEA demand forecasts, with breakeven resolution based on April CME settlement averages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado↑ $150
51%
↑ $140
52%
↑ $130
52%
↑ $120
52%
↑ $110
52%
↑ $100
51%
↑ $90
51%
↓ $80
94%
↓ $70
94%
↓ $60
97%
↓ $50
97%
↓ $40
97%
↓ $30
97%
↓ $20
97%
$0.00 Vol.
↑ $150
51%
↑ $140
52%
↑ $130
52%
↑ $120
52%
↑ $110
52%
↑ $100
51%
↑ $90
51%
↓ $80
94%
↓ $70
94%
↓ $60
97%
↓ $50
97%
↓ $40
97%
↓ $30
97%
↓ $20
97%
For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month.
For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month, consistent with CME contract specifications.
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.WTIM6%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.WTIM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.WTIM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a 45% implied probability for WTI crude oil settling between $60-$70 per barrel in April 2026, reflecting expectations of persistent global supply overhang amid subdued demand growth. Current spot WTI trades near $71/bbl, with the futures curve in mild contango signaling lower forward prices through 2026, as US shale output hits record 13.4 million bpd and non-OPEC supply surges. Recent OPEC+ extension of voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 offers temporary support, but weakening Chinese industrial activity and EV adoption cap upside. Key catalysts include the December 5 OPEC+ meeting, weekly EIA inventory data, and IEA demand forecasts, with breakeven resolution based on April CME settlement averages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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