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Economía·Tarifa

¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?

icon for ¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?
Economía·Tarifa

¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?

Subida

63% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Subida

63% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation moderation to 3.5% year-over-year in June, following a 4.2% May print, has eased some pressure, yet the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This signals growing hawkish concern over reaccelerating price pressures and a resilient economy amid the upcoming July CPI release on August 12. Traders assign a 63% implied probability to a hike as the next policy move, reflecting futures pricing that anticipates action by year-end, with the September 15-16 FOMC and Jackson Hole symposium as key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,863
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028
Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation moderation to 3.5% year-over-year in June, following a 4.2% May print, has eased some pressure, yet the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This signals growing hawkish concern over reaccelerating price pressures and a resilient economy amid the upcoming July CPI release on August 12. Traders assign a 63% implied probability to a hike as the next policy move, reflecting futures pricing that anticipates action by year-end, with the September 15-16 FOMC and Jackson Hole symposium as key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,863
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028
Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" con 63%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 63¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jul 14, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" es "¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" con 63%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuál será el próximo cambio en la tasa de la Fed?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.