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icon for ¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?
Economía·Jerome Powell

¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?
Economía·Jerome Powell

¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?

$1,817,695 Vol.

30 dic 2026
Polymarket

$1,817,695 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$54,930 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.25%

$142,537 Vol.

3%

↑ 5,0%

$19,154 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$80,602 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.5%

$39,002 Vol.

16%

↑ 4,25%

$122,958 Vol.

50%

↓ 3.25%

$81,283 Vol.

8%

↓ 3,0%

$314,222 Vol.

2%

↓ 2,75%

$363,709 Vol.

3%

↓ 2,5%

$222,714 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.25%

$40,693 Vol.

3%

↓ 2,0%

$18,810 Vol.

3%

↓ 1,75%

$12,314 Vol.

1%

↓ 1,5%

$28,320 Vol.

2%

↓ 1,25%

$3,778 Vol.

2%

↓ 1,0%

$2,319 Vol.

2%

↓ 0,75%

$731 Vol.

2%

↓ 0,5%

$107,192 Vol.

2%

↓ 0,25%

$132,345 Vol.

2%

↓ 0%

$21,080 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The current federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75% with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-September 2026. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and upward revisions to PCE projections, combined with resilient labor market data, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. The June SEP raised the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh and removal of easing bias. Futures markets now price roughly four hikes by mid-2027, while trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns elevated probability to the range reaching 4.25% or higher before year-end versus deeper cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September dot plot, upcoming CPI and payroll releases, and any signals on the balance sheet or policy framework review.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volumen
$1,817,695
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The current federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75% with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-September 2026. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and upward revisions to PCE projections, combined with resilient labor market data, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. The June SEP raised the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh and removal of easing bias. Futures markets now price roughly four hikes by mid-2027, while trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns elevated probability to the range reaching 4.25% or higher before year-end versus deeper cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September dot plot, upcoming CPI and payroll releases, and any signals on the balance sheet or policy framework review.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volumen
$1,817,695
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "↓ 3.5%" con 100%, seguido de "↑ 4,25%" con 50%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" ha generado $1.8 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" es "↓ 3.5%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "↑ 4,25%" con 50%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué alcanzará la tasa de la Fed antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.