Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,294,030 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de septiembre
29%
Reunión de octubre
39%
$2,294,030 Vol.
Reunión de septiembre
$865,730 Vol.
29%
Reunión de octubre
$468,301 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$2,294,030Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,294,030Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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