Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving implied probabilities higher in fed funds futures markets. With the current target range held at 3.50%–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and elevated price pressures have reduced expectations for further easing while raising the odds of a 25-basis-point tightening as soon as December. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will confront this data-dependent path at upcoming meetings, including the June 16–17 session, where fresh CPI, PCE, and employment figures could refine the market-implied trajectory versus official guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$149,348 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de junio
1%
Reunión de julio
9%
Reunión de septiembre
15%
Reunión de octubre
28%
$149,348 Vol.
Reunión de junio
$15,287 Vol.
1%
Reunión de julio
$1,102 Vol.
9%
Reunión de septiembre
$165 Vol.
15%
Reunión de octubre
$1,485 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving implied probabilities higher in fed funds futures markets. With the current target range held at 3.50%–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and elevated price pressures have reduced expectations for further easing while raising the odds of a 25-basis-point tightening as soon as December. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will confront this data-dependent path at upcoming meetings, including the June 16–17 session, where fresh CPI, PCE, and employment figures could refine the market-implied trajectory versus official guidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$149,348Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving implied probabilities higher in fed funds futures markets. With the current target range held at 3.50%–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and elevated price pressures have reduced expectations for further easing while raising the odds of a 25-basis-point tightening as soon as December. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will confront this data-dependent path at upcoming meetings, including the June 16–17 session, where fresh CPI, PCE, and employment figures could refine the market-implied trajectory versus official guidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$149,348Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving implied probabilities higher in fed funds futures markets. With the current target range held at 3.50%–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and elevated price pressures have reduced expectations for further easing while raising the odds of a 25-basis-point tightening as soon as December. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will confront this data-dependent path at upcoming meetings, including the June 16–17 session, where fresh CPI, PCE, and employment figures could refine the market-implied trajectory versus official guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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