Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices, has anchored market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause at 93% for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The April decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with an 8-4 vote—the most dissent since 1992—reflecting officials’ focus on upside risks from sticky core measures and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. Minutes from that meeting and subsequent data have shifted trader consensus toward policy firming rather than easing, consistent with broader futures pricing showing limited cuts or potential hikes later in 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming core PCE releases; a sharp disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
$52,076 Vol.
$52,076 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
$52,076 Vol.
$52,076 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,509 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,373 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,558 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,777 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices, has anchored market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause at 93% for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The April decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with an 8-4 vote—the most dissent since 1992—reflecting officials’ focus on upside risks from sticky core measures and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. Minutes from that meeting and subsequent data have shifted trader consensus toward policy firming rather than easing, consistent with broader futures pricing showing limited cuts or potential hikes later in 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming core PCE releases; a sharp disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$52,076Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices, has anchored market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause at 93% for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The April decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with an 8-4 vote—the most dissent since 1992—reflecting officials’ focus on upside risks from sticky core measures and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. Minutes from that meeting and subsequent data have shifted trader consensus toward policy firming rather than easing, consistent with broader futures pricing showing limited cuts or potential hikes later in 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming core PCE releases; a sharp disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$52,076Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices, has anchored market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause at 93% for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The April decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with an 8-4 vote—the most dissent since 1992—reflecting officials’ focus on upside risks from sticky core measures and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. Minutes from that meeting and subsequent data have shifted trader consensus toward policy firming rather than easing, consistent with broader futures pricing showing limited cuts or potential hikes later in 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming core PCE releases; a sharp disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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