**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at a 99.1% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s steady policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range.** May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, while core CPI rose to 2.9%. This trajectory, paired with a resilient labor market, has reinforced market-implied expectations that officials will prioritize inflation control over near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections have shown little shift toward cuts this year, aligning with the limited pricing on alternative paths like Pause–Pause–Cut. The June 16-17 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst that could test this positioning if incoming data materially alters the inflation or growth outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 99.0%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,740,997 Vol.
$1,740,997 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
99%
Otro
1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
<1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 99.0%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,740,997 Vol.
$1,740,997 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$310,440 Vol.
99%
Otro
$347,209 Vol.
1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$338,007 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at a 99.1% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s steady policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range.**
May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, while core CPI rose to 2.9%. This trajectory, paired with a resilient labor market, has reinforced market-implied expectations that officials will prioritize inflation control over near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections have shown little shift toward cuts this year, aligning with the limited pricing on alternative paths like Pause–Pause–Cut.
The June 16-17 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst that could test this positioning if incoming data materially alters the inflation or growth outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,740,997Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at a 99.1% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s steady policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range.**
May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, while core CPI rose to 2.9%. This trajectory, paired with a resilient labor market, has reinforced market-implied expectations that officials will prioritize inflation control over near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections have shown little shift toward cuts this year, aligning with the limited pricing on alternative paths like Pause–Pause–Cut.
The June 16-17 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst that could test this positioning if incoming data materially alters the inflation or growth outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,740,997Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at a 99.1% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s steady policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range.** May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, while core CPI rose to 2.9%. This trajectory, paired with a resilient labor market, has reinforced market-implied expectations that officials will prioritize inflation control over near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections have shown little shift toward cuts this year, aligning with the limited pricing on alternative paths like Pause–Pause–Cut. The June 16-17 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst that could test this positioning if incoming data materially alters the inflation or growth outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes