Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a resilient labor market amid geopolitical tensions driving oil price spikes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate steady, with minutes released April 8 highlighting elevated consumer price inflation and little-changed unemployment near 4.4%, while March CPI data showed core undershooting but energy indexes surging 12.5% year-over-year. This has pushed back market-implied rate cut expectations to late 2026 per recent Reuters polls. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, though a sharp labor market deterioration or disinflation surprise could challenge the pause consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 91%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 5.9%
Otro 2.0%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte <1%
$968,432 Vol.
$968,432 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
91%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
6%
Otro
2%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 91%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 5.9%
Otro 2.0%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte <1%
$968,432 Vol.
$968,432 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$36,893 Vol.
91%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$18,558 Vol.
6%
Otro
$219,591 Vol.
2%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
$516,258 Vol.
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
$177,133 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a resilient labor market amid geopolitical tensions driving oil price spikes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate steady, with minutes released April 8 highlighting elevated consumer price inflation and little-changed unemployment near 4.4%, while March CPI data showed core undershooting but energy indexes surging 12.5% year-over-year. This has pushed back market-implied rate cut expectations to late 2026 per recent Reuters polls. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, though a sharp labor market deterioration or disinflation surprise could challenge the pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$968,432Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a resilient labor market amid geopolitical tensions driving oil price spikes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate steady, with minutes released April 8 highlighting elevated consumer price inflation and little-changed unemployment near 4.4%, while March CPI data showed core undershooting but energy indexes surging 12.5% year-over-year. This has pushed back market-implied rate cut expectations to late 2026 per recent Reuters polls. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, though a sharp labor market deterioration or disinflation surprise could challenge the pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$968,432Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a resilient labor market amid geopolitical tensions driving oil price spikes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate steady, with minutes released April 8 highlighting elevated consumer price inflation and little-changed unemployment near 4.4%, while March CPI data showed core undershooting but energy indexes surging 12.5% year-over-year. This has pushed back market-implied rate cut expectations to late 2026 per recent Reuters polls. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, though a sharp labor market deterioration or disinflation surprise could challenge the pause consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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