Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% following the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, with futures markets and trader positioning reflecting expectations for policy to remain restrictive into year-end. Recent data show no material cooling in price pressures, supporting market-implied odds favoring no rate cuts—or even modest hikes—at the September 15–16 and December 8–9 meetings. Key upcoming catalysts include the August Jackson Hole Symposium, August CPI and employment reports, and the September dot plot update, which could shift rate-path expectations if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or labor conditions weaken. Traders pricing these outcomes emphasize the gap between current restrictive policy and the Fed’s inflation target.