**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in FOMC projections have driven trader sentiment toward scenarios involving at least one rate increase among the June, July, and September 2026 meetings, supporting the 78% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes.** The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but the June dot plot showed nine of 19 officials projecting at least one hike by year-end amid PCE inflation prints reaching multi-year highs near 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures linked to energy and geopolitical factors, while forward guidance was pared back. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away and futures pricing a roughly 78–85% chance of a 25 basis point increase, the low 20% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero on Pause–Pause–Cut align with consensus that further data-dependent tightening remains the dominant path priced into the meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOther 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,812 Vol.
$864,812 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
79%
Other 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,812 Vol.
$864,812 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,706 Vol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,261 Vol.
<1%
Other
$373,968 Vol.
79%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in FOMC projections have driven trader sentiment toward scenarios involving at least one rate increase among the June, July, and September 2026 meetings, supporting the 78% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes.** The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but the June dot plot showed nine of 19 officials projecting at least one hike by year-end amid PCE inflation prints reaching multi-year highs near 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures linked to energy and geopolitical factors, while forward guidance was pared back. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away and futures pricing a roughly 78–85% chance of a 25 basis point increase, the low 20% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero on Pause–Pause–Cut align with consensus that further data-dependent tightening remains the dominant path priced into the meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$864,812Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in FOMC projections have driven trader sentiment toward scenarios involving at least one rate increase among the June, July, and September 2026 meetings, supporting the 78% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes.** The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but the June dot plot showed nine of 19 officials projecting at least one hike by year-end amid PCE inflation prints reaching multi-year highs near 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures linked to energy and geopolitical factors, while forward guidance was pared back. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away and futures pricing a roughly 78–85% chance of a 25 basis point increase, the low 20% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero on Pause–Pause–Cut align with consensus that further data-dependent tightening remains the dominant path priced into the meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$864,812Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in FOMC projections have driven trader sentiment toward scenarios involving at least one rate increase among the June, July, and September 2026 meetings, supporting the 78% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes.** The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but the June dot plot showed nine of 19 officials projecting at least one hike by year-end amid PCE inflation prints reaching multi-year highs near 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The July decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures linked to energy and geopolitical factors, while forward guidance was pared back. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away and futures pricing a roughly 78–85% chance of a 25 basis point increase, the low 20% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero on Pause–Pause–Cut align with consensus that further data-dependent tightening remains the dominant path priced into the meetings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes