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Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$219,263 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$219,263 Vol.

Polymarket

3.9%

$41,558 Vol.

35%

3.8%

$40,644 Vol.

25%

3.7%

$26,579 Vol.

23%

3.6%

$5,136 Vol.

11%

3.5%

$32,349 Vol.

7%

3.0%

$744 Vol.

8%

2.0%

$373 Vol.

10%

1.0%

$40,121 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$219,263
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$219,263
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "4.0%" con 100%, seguido de "3.9%" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" ha generado $219.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" es "4.0%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3.9%" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.