Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$225,341 Vol.
30 dic 2026
3,9%
11%
3,8%
5%
3,7%
2%
3,6%
5%
3,5%
2%
3,0%
2%
2,0%
5%
1,0%
2%
$225,341 Vol.
3,9%
$44,197 Vol.
11%
3,8%
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3,7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3,6%
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3,5%
$33,052 Vol.
2%
3,0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2,0%
$564 Vol.
5%
1,0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volumen
$225,341Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$225,341Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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