Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 67%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 32%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,466,109 Vol.
$1,466,109 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
67%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
32%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 67%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 32%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$1,466,109 Vol.
$1,466,109 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$242,159 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$554,634 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$231,992 Vol.
67%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$273,430 Vol.
32%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$163,894 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,466,109Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,466,109Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿La Reserva Federal aumentará las tasas de interés en 25 pb después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
63%
Sí
¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?
48%
Sí
¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de los fondos federales del 4,0% al final de 2026?
43%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes