Persistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with the Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a divided 9-3 vote, have anchored trader expectations for no further policy shifts through October. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, yet markets continue to price limited scope for cuts given the Fed’s dual mandate focus and recent hawkish dissents. This backdrop supports the 59% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, while the 39.5% weighting on “Other” reflects residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike if incoming data fail to confirm disinflation. Upcoming CPI releases and the next two FOMC statements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$716,794 Vol.
$716,794 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$716,794 Vol.
$716,794 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$237,503 Vol.
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,782 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$38,903 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$311,059 Vol.
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with the Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a divided 9-3 vote, have anchored trader expectations for no further policy shifts through October. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, yet markets continue to price limited scope for cuts given the Fed’s dual mandate focus and recent hawkish dissents. This backdrop supports the 59% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, while the 39.5% weighting on “Other” reflects residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike if incoming data fail to confirm disinflation. Upcoming CPI releases and the next two FOMC statements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$716,794Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with the Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a divided 9-3 vote, have anchored trader expectations for no further policy shifts through October. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, yet markets continue to price limited scope for cuts given the Fed’s dual mandate focus and recent hawkish dissents. This backdrop supports the 59% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, while the 39.5% weighting on “Other” reflects residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike if incoming data fail to confirm disinflation. Upcoming CPI releases and the next two FOMC statements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$716,794Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with the Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a divided 9-3 vote, have anchored trader expectations for no further policy shifts through October. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, yet markets continue to price limited scope for cuts given the Fed’s dual mandate focus and recent hawkish dissents. This backdrop supports the 59% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, while the 39.5% weighting on “Other” reflects residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike if incoming data fail to confirm disinflation. Upcoming CPI releases and the next two FOMC statements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes