Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price shocks has elevated the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability that no increase occurs in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing a gradual rise toward 3.8% by year-end, traders are weighing persistent price pressures and a firm labor market against the Fed’s current hold stance ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Upcoming inflation releases and any shift in policy language will serve as key catalysts influencing whether probabilities tilt further toward a potential tightening move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,028,861 Vol.
$2,028,861 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$2,028,861 Vol.
$2,028,861 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price shocks has elevated the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability that no increase occurs in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing a gradual rise toward 3.8% by year-end, traders are weighing persistent price pressures and a firm labor market against the Fed’s current hold stance ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Upcoming inflation releases and any shift in policy language will serve as key catalysts influencing whether probabilities tilt further toward a potential tightening move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,028,861Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price shocks has elevated the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability that no increase occurs in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing a gradual rise toward 3.8% by year-end, traders are weighing persistent price pressures and a firm labor market against the Fed’s current hold stance ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Upcoming inflation releases and any shift in policy language will serve as key catalysts influencing whether probabilities tilt further toward a potential tightening move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,028,866Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price shocks has elevated the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability that no increase occurs in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing a gradual rise toward 3.8% by year-end, traders are weighing persistent price pressures and a firm labor market against the Fed’s current hold stance ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Upcoming inflation releases and any shift in policy language will serve as key catalysts influencing whether probabilities tilt further toward a potential tightening move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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