Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July FOMC meeting, underpins the near-even 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50–3.75%, supported by solid labor market conditions and resilient economic activity, yet core PCE pressures and energy supply shocks have shifted trader consensus from earlier rate-cut expectations toward a possible tightening later this year. Key swing factors include the September 15–16 FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any further hawkish signals from Chair Warsh that could tip futures pricing decisively higher or confirm a hold through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
55% probabilidad
$6,988,313 Vol.
$6,988,313 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
55% probabilidad
$6,988,313 Vol.
$6,988,313 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July FOMC meeting, underpins the near-even 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50–3.75%, supported by solid labor market conditions and resilient economic activity, yet core PCE pressures and energy supply shocks have shifted trader consensus from earlier rate-cut expectations toward a possible tightening later this year. Key swing factors include the September 15–16 FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any further hawkish signals from Chair Warsh that could tip futures pricing decisively higher or confirm a hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$6,988,313Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July FOMC meeting, underpins the near-even 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50–3.75%, supported by solid labor market conditions and resilient economic activity, yet core PCE pressures and energy supply shocks have shifted trader consensus from earlier rate-cut expectations toward a possible tightening later this year. Key swing factors include the September 15–16 FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any further hawkish signals from Chair Warsh that could tip futures pricing decisively higher or confirm a hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,988,313Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July FOMC meeting, underpins the near-even 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 rate increase. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50–3.75%, supported by solid labor market conditions and resilient economic activity, yet core PCE pressures and energy supply shocks have shifted trader consensus from earlier rate-cut expectations toward a possible tightening later this year. Key swing factors include the September 15–16 FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any further hawkish signals from Chair Warsh that could tip futures pricing decisively higher or confirm a hold through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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