Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market readings of 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payrolls, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to remain in its current 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end. With the June FOMC meeting and updated dot plot now underway under new leadership, market-implied odds of 64.5% against a 2026 hike reflect consensus that persistent but contained inflation pressures and steady growth reduce the case for further tightening, though any acceleration in core readings or labor strength could still introduce upside risks to policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,028,731 Vol.
$2,028,731 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$2,028,731 Vol.
$2,028,731 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market readings of 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payrolls, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to remain in its current 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end. With the June FOMC meeting and updated dot plot now underway under new leadership, market-implied odds of 64.5% against a 2026 hike reflect consensus that persistent but contained inflation pressures and steady growth reduce the case for further tightening, though any acceleration in core readings or labor strength could still introduce upside risks to policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,028,731Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market readings of 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payrolls, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to remain in its current 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end. With the June FOMC meeting and updated dot plot now underway under new leadership, market-implied odds of 64.5% against a 2026 hike reflect consensus that persistent but contained inflation pressures and steady growth reduce the case for further tightening, though any acceleration in core readings or labor strength could still introduce upside risks to policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,028,731Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market readings of 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payrolls, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to remain in its current 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end. With the June FOMC meeting and updated dot plot now underway under new leadership, market-implied odds of 64.5% against a 2026 hike reflect consensus that persistent but contained inflation pressures and steady growth reduce the case for further tightening, though any acceleration in core readings or labor strength could still introduce upside risks to policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes