The June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh delivered the key catalyst, with the median dot plot shifting to a 3.8% federal funds rate endpoint for year-end—up from 3.4% in March—implying at least one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent inflation, highlighted by May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with resilient May payrolls of +172k, has tilted risks upward and prompted officials to flag potential tightening later this year. Market-implied odds of 61% for a 2026 hike reflect this data trajectory and the updated projections, though uncertainty remains around whether inflation moderates enough to keep policy on hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,199,894 Vol.
$2,199,894 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$2,199,894 Vol.
$2,199,894 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh delivered the key catalyst, with the median dot plot shifting to a 3.8% federal funds rate endpoint for year-end—up from 3.4% in March—implying at least one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent inflation, highlighted by May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with resilient May payrolls of +172k, has tilted risks upward and prompted officials to flag potential tightening later this year. Market-implied odds of 61% for a 2026 hike reflect this data trajectory and the updated projections, though uncertainty remains around whether inflation moderates enough to keep policy on hold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,199,894Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh delivered the key catalyst, with the median dot plot shifting to a 3.8% federal funds rate endpoint for year-end—up from 3.4% in March—implying at least one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent inflation, highlighted by May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with resilient May payrolls of +172k, has tilted risks upward and prompted officials to flag potential tightening later this year. Market-implied odds of 61% for a 2026 hike reflect this data trajectory and the updated projections, though uncertainty remains around whether inflation moderates enough to keep policy on hold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,200,794Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh delivered the key catalyst, with the median dot plot shifting to a 3.8% federal funds rate endpoint for year-end—up from 3.4% in March—implying at least one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Persistent inflation, highlighted by May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with resilient May payrolls of +172k, has tilted risks upward and prompted officials to flag potential tightening later this year. Market-implied odds of 61% for a 2026 hike reflect this data trajectory and the updated projections, though uncertainty remains around whether inflation moderates enough to keep policy on hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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