Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, has shifted some market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes by late 2026, with futures now pricing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. However, the 64.5% probability assigned to no hike reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, economist consensus that policy will remain on hold through December amid balanced growth risks, and expectations that any tightening would require clearer overheating signals beyond recent data. Upcoming FOMC meetings, including the June 16-17 decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and subsequent inflation releases will serve as key catalysts for revisions in these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, has shifted some market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes by late 2026, with futures now pricing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. However, the 64.5% probability assigned to no hike reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, economist consensus that policy will remain on hold through December amid balanced growth risks, and expectations that any tightening would require clearer overheating signals beyond recent data. Upcoming FOMC meetings, including the June 16-17 decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and subsequent inflation releases will serve as key catalysts for revisions in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,028,661Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, has shifted some market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes by late 2026, with futures now pricing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. However, the 64.5% probability assigned to no hike reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, economist consensus that policy will remain on hold through December amid balanced growth risks, and expectations that any tightening would require clearer overheating signals beyond recent data. Upcoming FOMC meetings, including the June 16-17 decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and subsequent inflation releases will serve as key catalysts for revisions in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,028,664Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, has shifted some market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes by late 2026, with futures now pricing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. However, the 64.5% probability assigned to no hike reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, economist consensus that policy will remain on hold through December amid balanced growth risks, and expectations that any tightening would require clearer overheating signals beyond recent data. Upcoming FOMC meetings, including the June 16-17 decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and subsequent inflation releases will serve as key catalysts for revisions in these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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