Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply-chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range through July 2026, prompting traders to price a slim 54.5% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end. June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year with core at 2.6%, yet recent readings and FOMC dissents signal that the Fed’s 2% goal remains distant, supporting market-implied odds near parity. August CPI and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market data soften further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
55% probabilidad
$6,992,810 Vol.
$6,992,810 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
55% probabilidad
$6,992,810 Vol.
$6,992,810 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply-chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range through July 2026, prompting traders to price a slim 54.5% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end. June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year with core at 2.6%, yet recent readings and FOMC dissents signal that the Fed’s 2% goal remains distant, supporting market-implied odds near parity. August CPI and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market data soften further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$6,992,810Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply-chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range through July 2026, prompting traders to price a slim 54.5% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end. June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year with core at 2.6%, yet recent readings and FOMC dissents signal that the Fed’s 2% goal remains distant, supporting market-implied odds near parity. August CPI and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market data soften further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,992,810Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply-chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range through July 2026, prompting traders to price a slim 54.5% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike before year-end. June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year with core at 2.6%, yet recent readings and FOMC dissents signal that the Fed’s 2% goal remains distant, supporting market-implied odds near parity. August CPI and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market data soften further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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