Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have kept the market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike at roughly 34.5 percent. May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2 percent year-over-year amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while core measures firmed and May payrolls showed solid gains with unemployment near 4.3 percent. With the fed funds target already at 3.50–3.75 percent, Reuters polling shows nearly 70 percent of economists now expect rates to hold steady through year-end, and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is widely anticipated to maintain the range. Futures markets embed a modest hike probability as an upside inflation risk, but the consensus favors policy on hold absent further deterioration in price data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,882,501 Vol.
$1,882,501 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,882,501 Vol.
$1,882,501 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have kept the market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike at roughly 34.5 percent. May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2 percent year-over-year amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while core measures firmed and May payrolls showed solid gains with unemployment near 4.3 percent. With the fed funds target already at 3.50–3.75 percent, Reuters polling shows nearly 70 percent of economists now expect rates to hold steady through year-end, and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is widely anticipated to maintain the range. Futures markets embed a modest hike probability as an upside inflation risk, but the consensus favors policy on hold absent further deterioration in price data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,882,501Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have kept the market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike at roughly 34.5 percent. May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2 percent year-over-year amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while core measures firmed and May payrolls showed solid gains with unemployment near 4.3 percent. With the fed funds target already at 3.50–3.75 percent, Reuters polling shows nearly 70 percent of economists now expect rates to hold steady through year-end, and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is widely anticipated to maintain the range. Futures markets embed a modest hike probability as an upside inflation risk, but the consensus favors policy on hold absent further deterioration in price data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,882,551Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have kept the market-implied odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike at roughly 34.5 percent. May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2 percent year-over-year amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while core measures firmed and May payrolls showed solid gains with unemployment near 4.3 percent. With the fed funds target already at 3.50–3.75 percent, Reuters polling shows nearly 70 percent of economists now expect rates to hold steady through year-end, and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is widely anticipated to maintain the range. Futures markets embed a modest hike probability as an upside inflation risk, but the consensus favors policy on hold absent further deterioration in price data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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