Persistent geopolitical tensions have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation above 3% and keeping core measures sticky around 3%, which has shifted some trader expectations toward possible 2026 hikes. However, the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate increase this year reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, resilient but non-overheating labor conditions with unemployment near 4.3%, and moderating GDP growth forecasts. Economists largely anticipate steady policy through year-end, while CME FedWatch shows roughly balanced odds. The June 17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent geopolitical tensions have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation above 3% and keeping core measures sticky around 3%, which has shifted some trader expectations toward possible 2026 hikes. However, the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate increase this year reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, resilient but non-overheating labor conditions with unemployment near 4.3%, and moderating GDP growth forecasts. Economists largely anticipate steady policy through year-end, while CME FedWatch shows roughly balanced odds. The June 17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,028,661Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent geopolitical tensions have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation above 3% and keeping core measures sticky around 3%, which has shifted some trader expectations toward possible 2026 hikes. However, the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate increase this year reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, resilient but non-overheating labor conditions with unemployment near 4.3%, and moderating GDP growth forecasts. Economists largely anticipate steady policy through year-end, while CME FedWatch shows roughly balanced odds. The June 17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,028,661Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent geopolitical tensions have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation above 3% and keeping core measures sticky around 3%, which has shifted some trader expectations toward possible 2026 hikes. However, the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate increase this year reflects the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range, resilient but non-overheating labor conditions with unemployment near 4.3%, and moderating GDP growth forecasts. Economists largely anticipate steady policy through year-end, while CME FedWatch shows roughly balanced odds. The June 17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes