Persistent inflation from geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May jobs report—have shifted trader expectations toward higher-for-longer policy, with the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. This backdrop supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, as most economists now see steady rates through year-end rather than easing or tightening as the base case. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing reflect uncertainty around potential late-2026 adjustments, though June and September meetings remain key near-term catalysts amid anchored longer-term inflation expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,882,751 Vol.
$1,882,751 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,882,751 Vol.
$1,882,751 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation from geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May jobs report—have shifted trader expectations toward higher-for-longer policy, with the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. This backdrop supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, as most economists now see steady rates through year-end rather than easing or tightening as the base case. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing reflect uncertainty around potential late-2026 adjustments, though June and September meetings remain key near-term catalysts amid anchored longer-term inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,882,751Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation from geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May jobs report—have shifted trader expectations toward higher-for-longer policy, with the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. This backdrop supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, as most economists now see steady rates through year-end rather than easing or tightening as the base case. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing reflect uncertainty around potential late-2026 adjustments, though June and September meetings remain key near-term catalysts amid anchored longer-term inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,882,751Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation from geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May jobs report—have shifted trader expectations toward higher-for-longer policy, with the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. This backdrop supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, as most economists now see steady rates through year-end rather than easing or tightening as the base case. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing reflect uncertainty around potential late-2026 adjustments, though June and September meetings remain key near-term catalysts amid anchored longer-term inflation expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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