The 97.3% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with no charges filed and the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general. Powell completed his term as Chair in May 2026 and remains a Board governor through 2028, underscoring the institutional protections and evidentiary thresholds that shield senior monetary policymakers from criminal liability. While tail risks such as unexpected inspector general findings or novel legal theories could theoretically emerge, historical precedent shows convictions of this magnitude for comparable officials remain exceedingly rare absent clear proof of personal misconduct.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 97.3% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with no charges filed and the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general. Powell completed his term as Chair in May 2026 and remains a Board governor through 2028, underscoring the institutional protections and evidentiary thresholds that shield senior monetary policymakers from criminal liability. While tail risks such as unexpected inspector general findings or novel legal theories could theoretically emerge, historical precedent shows convictions of this magnitude for comparable officials remain exceedingly rare absent clear proof of personal misconduct.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 97.3% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with no charges filed and the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general. Powell completed his term as Chair in May 2026 and remains a Board governor through 2028, underscoring the institutional protections and evidentiary thresholds that shield senior monetary policymakers from criminal liability. While tail risks such as unexpected inspector general findings or novel legal theories could theoretically emerge, historical precedent shows convictions of this magnitude for comparable officials remain exceedingly rare absent clear proof of personal misconduct.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 97.3% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with no charges filed and the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general. Powell completed his term as Chair in May 2026 and remains a Board governor through 2028, underscoring the institutional protections and evidentiary thresholds that shield senior monetary policymakers from criminal liability. While tail risks such as unexpected inspector general findings or novel legal theories could theoretically emerge, historical precedent shows convictions of this magnitude for comparable officials remain exceedingly rare absent clear proof of personal misconduct.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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