The investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, opened in late 2025 amid tensions over monetary policy, was dropped by the Department of Justice in April 2026 with no charges filed and a judicial finding of insufficient evidence. This outcome, combined with the end of Powell’s chair term in May 2026 and his continued service only as a governor through 2028, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he will not face imprisonment before 2027. Traders price in the institutional safeguards around Fed independence, the absence of ongoing legal exposure, and historical precedent that senior central bankers rarely face criminal proceedings absent clear misconduct. While tail risks such as renewed politically motivated probes cannot be entirely ruled out, the prior dismissal and lack of credible new developments render such scenarios remote.