The abrupt dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations in April 2026 underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against his imprisonment before 2027. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas, citing insufficient evidence of any crime beyond policy disagreements, while the investigation yielded no charges and shifted to the Fed’s inspector general. This outcome aligns with longstanding norms protecting central bank independence, reinforced by Powell’s term ending in May 2026 without further legal exposure. Tail risks remain limited to improbable scenarios such as politically motivated new filings lacking judicial support or extraordinary post-tenure developments, though historical precedent and current absence of proceedings make such paths remote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The abrupt dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations in April 2026 underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against his imprisonment before 2027. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas, citing insufficient evidence of any crime beyond policy disagreements, while the investigation yielded no charges and shifted to the Fed’s inspector general. This outcome aligns with longstanding norms protecting central bank independence, reinforced by Powell’s term ending in May 2026 without further legal exposure. Tail risks remain limited to improbable scenarios such as politically motivated new filings lacking judicial support or extraordinary post-tenure developments, though historical precedent and current absence of proceedings make such paths remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The abrupt dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations in April 2026 underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against his imprisonment before 2027. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas, citing insufficient evidence of any crime beyond policy disagreements, while the investigation yielded no charges and shifted to the Fed’s inspector general. This outcome aligns with longstanding norms protecting central bank independence, reinforced by Powell’s term ending in May 2026 without further legal exposure. Tail risks remain limited to improbable scenarios such as politically motivated new filings lacking judicial support or extraordinary post-tenure developments, though historical precedent and current absence of proceedings make such paths remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The abrupt dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations in April 2026 underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against his imprisonment before 2027. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas, citing insufficient evidence of any crime beyond policy disagreements, while the investigation yielded no charges and shifted to the Fed’s inspector general. This outcome aligns with longstanding norms protecting central bank independence, reinforced by Powell’s term ending in May 2026 without further legal exposure. Tail risks remain limited to improbable scenarios such as politically motivated new filings lacking judicial support or extraordinary post-tenure developments, though historical precedent and current absence of proceedings make such paths remote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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