The 95.3% market-implied probability against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 reflects the institution’s deep statutory independence under the Federal Reserve Act and the absence of any credible legislative pathway. A 2025 House bill to repeal the Act and dissolve the Board of Governors remains stalled in committee with minimal support, while the central bank continues active monetary policy functions, including June 2026 stress-test releases, rate-setting deliberations, and Treasury-yield operations under the new chair. Traders price in this continuity because dismantling a system integral to financial stability would require supermajority congressional action unlikely amid divided priorities. Remote tail risks include an unforeseen constitutional crisis or abrupt political realignment capable of accelerating repeal, though both remain viewed as low-probability outliers.