Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, has anchored trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%, officials' data-dependent stance emphasizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing, as reflected in recent FOMC minutes and futures pricing. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting represent the nearest catalysts that could shift these odds, though current conditions leave limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment absent a sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.3%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,246,442 Vol.
$8,246,442 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.3%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,246,442 Vol.
$8,246,442 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,062,220 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$851,863 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,096,179 Vol.
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,873,260 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,362,942 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, has anchored trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%, officials' data-dependent stance emphasizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing, as reflected in recent FOMC minutes and futures pricing. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting represent the nearest catalysts that could shift these odds, though current conditions leave limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment absent a sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$8,246,442Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, has anchored trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%, officials' data-dependent stance emphasizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing, as reflected in recent FOMC minutes and futures pricing. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting represent the nearest catalysts that could shift these odds, though current conditions leave limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment absent a sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$8,246,442Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, has anchored trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%, officials' data-dependent stance emphasizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing, as reflected in recent FOMC minutes and futures pricing. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting represent the nearest catalysts that could shift these odds, though current conditions leave limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment absent a sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes