Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price shocks. The May jobs report reinforced this positioning, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Market-implied rate paths now price out cuts for the balance of 2026, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing progress toward the 2% inflation target. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release on June 10 or signs of labor-market cooling ahead of the July decision represent the primary scenarios that could shift these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,161,673 Vol.
$8,161,673 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,161,673 Vol.
$8,161,673 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,054,523 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$840,444 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,080,265 Vol.
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,859,458 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,330,683 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price shocks. The May jobs report reinforced this positioning, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Market-implied rate paths now price out cuts for the balance of 2026, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing progress toward the 2% inflation target. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release on June 10 or signs of labor-market cooling ahead of the July decision represent the primary scenarios that could shift these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$8,161,673Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price shocks. The May jobs report reinforced this positioning, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Market-implied rate paths now price out cuts for the balance of 2026, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing progress toward the 2% inflation target. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release on June 10 or signs of labor-market cooling ahead of the July decision represent the primary scenarios that could shift these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$8,161,673Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price shocks. The May jobs report reinforced this positioning, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Market-implied rate paths now price out cuts for the balance of 2026, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing progress toward the 2% inflation target. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release on June 10 or signs of labor-market cooling ahead of the July decision represent the primary scenarios that could shift these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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