Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing patience amid moderating but still-elevated inflation and a resilient labor market. June employment and CPI releases have shown only modest deviations from consensus forecasts, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with the central bank’s data-dependent stance. A 25-basis-point hike or cut remains possible only if incoming data sharply alter the inflation or employment outlook before the meeting. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI and retail sales figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 95%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.9%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,169,279 Vol.
$8,169,279 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
95%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 95%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.9%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,169,279 Vol.
$8,169,279 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,054,938 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$840,506 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,083,727 Vol.
95%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,859,458 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,334,145 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing patience amid moderating but still-elevated inflation and a resilient labor market. June employment and CPI releases have shown only modest deviations from consensus forecasts, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with the central bank’s data-dependent stance. A 25-basis-point hike or cut remains possible only if incoming data sharply alter the inflation or employment outlook before the meeting. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI and retail sales figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$8,169,279Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing patience amid moderating but still-elevated inflation and a resilient labor market. June employment and CPI releases have shown only modest deviations from consensus forecasts, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with the central bank’s data-dependent stance. A 25-basis-point hike or cut remains possible only if incoming data sharply alter the inflation or employment outlook before the meeting. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI and retail sales figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$8,169,279Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing patience amid moderating but still-elevated inflation and a resilient labor market. June employment and CPI releases have shown only modest deviations from consensus forecasts, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with the central bank’s data-dependent stance. A 25-basis-point hike or cut remains possible only if incoming data sharply alter the inflation or employment outlook before the meeting. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI and retail sales figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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