Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic expansion and sticky inflation that solidified the Fed's wait-and-see stance after its April 28-29 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, while nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling solid job gains amid moderating growth. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch pricing, anticipates steady policy barring surprises; hotter April CPI (due May 12) or escalating geopolitical risks could lift hike odds above 3.3%, while sharper labor market softening might revive 25 basis point cut probabilities near 5%. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,704,925 Vol.
$4,704,925 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$4,704,925 Vol.
$4,704,925 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$360,608 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$271,367 Vol.
5%
No change
$503,181 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$3,215,491 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$354,279 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic expansion and sticky inflation that solidified the Fed's wait-and-see stance after its April 28-29 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, while nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling solid job gains amid moderating growth. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch pricing, anticipates steady policy barring surprises; hotter April CPI (due May 12) or escalating geopolitical risks could lift hike odds above 3.3%, while sharper labor market softening might revive 25 basis point cut probabilities near 5%. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,704,925End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic expansion and sticky inflation that solidified the Fed's wait-and-see stance after its April 28-29 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, while nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling solid job gains amid moderating growth. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch pricing, anticipates steady policy barring surprises; hotter April CPI (due May 12) or escalating geopolitical risks could lift hike odds above 3.3%, while sharper labor market softening might revive 25 basis point cut probabilities near 5%. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,704,925End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic expansion and sticky inflation that solidified the Fed's wait-and-see stance after its April 28-29 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range in an unusually divided 8-4 vote. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, while nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling solid job gains amid moderating growth. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch pricing, anticipates steady policy barring surprises; hotter April CPI (due May 12) or escalating geopolitical risks could lift hike odds above 3.3%, while sharper labor market softening might revive 25 basis point cut probabilities near 5%. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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