Fed Holds Rates Steady and Signals Hawkish Shift in Dot Plot Projections

25 bps increase jumps to 17%14%

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot revealed a hawkish pivot, with nine of 19 officials projecting a rate hike by the end of 2026, causing 'No change' odds to drop slightly as '25 bps increase' expectations surged.

Fed holds rates steady but dot plot signals hawkish pivot

25 bps increase surges to 19%15%

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% but raised its year-end rate projection median to 3.8%, signaling a future rate hike.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady and hints at rate hike later this year

25 bps increase surges to 18%15%

At Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC kept the benchmark rate unchanged but released a hawkish dot plot showing that nine of 18 officials projected at least one rate hike in 2026.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removes easing bias and slashes forward guidance in new statement

No change plunges to 79%15%

The FOMC's post-meeting statement was significantly shortened, completely removing the previous easing bias and forward guidance, signaling a return to a simpler format and a higher-for-longer rate path.

Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting, signals possible hike later in 2026

No change plunges to 74%19%

At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but raised inflation projections and removed easing bias from its statement. The median forecast for the federal funds rate increased to 3.8% for 2026, indicating a potential 25 bps hike later in the year. This hawkish tone caused the market price for 'No change' to dip slightly and the price for a 25 bps increase to rise toward the end of the analysis window.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh

In Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The statement removed forward guidance, signaling a cautious approach but with a hawkish tilt in projections, supporting the 'No change' market outcome.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75%

No change plunges to 75%18%

The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate unchanged in a unanimous 12-0 vote, signaling a pause in rate cuts despite elevated inflation, marking the first decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Fed Projections Turn Hawkish Amid Persistent Inflation

No change plunges to 75%18%

The Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate forecast for 2026 increased, with nine of 19 policymakers now anticipating a rate hike by year-end 2026.

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged in First Meeting Under Chair Kevin Warsh

No change dips to 76%1%

At Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, the committee unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement highlighted elevated inflation due to supply shocks and geopolitical uncertainty, signaling a cautious approach with possible rate hikes later in the year but no immediate changes.

Warsh Launches Hawkish Review of Fed Forward Guidance

No change plunges to 75%18%

Chairman Kevin Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's communication strategy, opting for a stripped-down policy statement that removed forward guidance on future rate decisions.

Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Withhold Dot from Central Bank's Interest Rate Outlook

No change dips to 92%3%

Reports emerged that newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would withhold his individual interest-rate projection from the Fed's quarterly dot plot. This move signaled his skepticism toward forward guidance and introduced strategic ambiguity ahead of his first FOMC meeting.

US and Iran Announce Interim Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The announcement of a preliminary peace deal sparked a sharp drop in global oil prices, easing some immediate inflation fears but setting the stage for a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting under new leadership.

US Consumer Inflation Jumps to 4.2% in May on Rising Energy Costs

No change rises to 93%3%

U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, marking the fastest pace of inflation in three years due to energy price spikes from the war in Iran. The hot print solidified expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates elevated and potentially hike them later in the year.

US inflation climbs to 4.2% in May, highest in three years

25 bps increase dips to 4%2%

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% due to an energy price surge, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider tightening policy.

US Inflation Reaches 4.2% in May, Highest Since April 2023

25 bps increase surges to 25%19%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a massive surge in energy costs. This hotter-than-expected print forced markets to completely price out rate cuts for 2026 and begin pricing in potential rate hikes.

US Economy Adds 172,000 Jobs in May, Far Exceeding Forecasts

No change jumps to 94%5%

The U.S. labor market showed unexpected resilience as nonfarm payrolls surged by 172,000 in May, far outpacing the consensus estimate of 80,000-85,000. This strong report reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and supported a hawkish outlook ahead of the June FOMC meeting.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Kevin Warsh officially took the oath of office, assuming leadership of the central bank ahead of the critical June and July policy meetings.

Fed Minutes Show Officials See Rate Hike Possible if Inflation Stays Elevated

No change rises to 93%3%

Minutes from the May FOMC meeting highlighted increased disagreement among officials, with some seeing a rate hike ahead if inflation remains high, but overall market pricing continued to favor no change in July, reflecting cautious sentiment amid geopolitical risks.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair

No change rises to 89%1%

Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling continuity in monetary policy. Markets interpreted this as maintaining the current cautious stance on interest rates, supporting the 'No change' expectation for upcoming meetings.

Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

The U.S. Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell and signaling a potential shift in monetary policy communication.

US CPI Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Reaching Highest Level Since 2023

25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%

Driven by surging energy costs from the Iran war, annual inflation rose to 3.8%, further dampening any remaining expectations for near-term rate cuts.

April CPI Shows 3.8% Year‑Over‑Year Inflation Spike

No change rises to 93%1%

The CPI for April was released showing a 3.8 % annual rise – the highest since 2023 – driven by soaring energy prices. The jump reinforced concerns that inflation could stay elevated, prompting traders to back a continued hold rather than a cut, lifting “No change” from 92 % to 93 % on May 13.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 115,000 in April, Beating Muted Forecasts

No change rises to 91%1%

The April jobs report showed steady labor market growth despite Middle East conflict pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time.

Fed Holds Rates Steady at April Meeting Amid Divided Views

No change rises to 82%2%

At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenting votes signaling disagreement. Chair Powell indicated readiness to remain on the Board, and the Fed emphasized monitoring inflation and economic risks, reinforcing market expectations for no change in July.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks

No change rises to 83%2%

In the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, and a cautious labor market. The decision was marked by four dissenting votes, the most since 1992, reflecting internal debate but overall market stability.

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Record Dissent, 8‑4 Vote

No change jumps to 88%7%

At the April 29 meeting the Fed again held rates at 3.50‑3.75 % but recorded an 8‑4 split – the highest dissent since 1992. Four members opposed any language hinting at future cuts, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged hold and pushing “No change” up from 81 % to 88 % while further reducing the chance of a 25‑bp move.

Powell Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed Will Monitor Energy Risks

No change rises to 85%1%

Powell’s press conference after the April hold emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that the Fed will “continue to monitor” energy‑price risks. The dovish tone used to reassure markets kept the probability of any change near zero, contributing to the steady rise of the “No change” bracket.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in Powell's Final Meeting as Chair

No change rises to 88%3%

The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, marking the third consecutive hold in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady in April meeting amid inflation and geopolitical concerns

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive time, highlighting uncertainty around inflation and the Middle East conflict. The FOMC was notably divided, with four dissenters, signaling some internal debate but no immediate rate change.

Jerome Powell announces plan to remain on Fed Board after chair term ends

At the April meeting, Powell stated he would stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity amid economic uncertainty. This announcement reassured markets about policy stability, supporting the no change outcome.

FOMC maintains rates steady, signals delayed rate cuts

The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change in 2026 and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in the year. This contributed to sustained market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and diminished probabilities for rate decreases.

DOJ Drops Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

No change rises to 85%1%

The DOJ announced it was dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s building‑renovation probe. The closure removed a political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would remain on a hold‑policy path, nudging “No change” from 84 % to 85 % the next day.

Fed minutes reveal growing openness to rate hikes amid inflation concerns

Minutes from the March meeting showed some Fed policymakers considered potential rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, especially due to the inflationary impact of the US-Israel war with Iran. This hawkish tone influenced market uncertainty but did not immediately shift rate expectations.

March FOMC Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Over Geopolitical Inflation Risks

No change dips to 80%3%

The release of the March meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether the conflict in Iran would entrench inflation or damage employment, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.

Fed Chair Powell Says Central Bank Can 'Wait and See' on War's Inflation Impact

No change jumps to 80%6%

Speaking at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, noting that the central bank can wait to see how the war in Iran affects inflation before adjusting rates.