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FOMC predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

100%

No change

$160M Vol.

$23M today

$24M Liq.

14

Ends in 3 days

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

93%

No change

$10M Vol.

$186K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

85%

No change

$4M Vol.

$379K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

73%

1

$67.8K Vol.

$30.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

91%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$967K Vol.

$92.3K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

98%

Good Afternoon

$130K Vol.

$41.5K Liq.

4

Ends in 3 days

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

75%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$8.8K Vol.

$138K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

99%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$661K Vol.

$93.5K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

14%

September Meeting

$54.0K Vol.

$112K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

39%

0 (0 bps)

$21M Vol.

$180K today

$2M Liq.

57

Ends in 8 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

34%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$345K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

60%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$193K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

65%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$250K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

12%

$3.5K Vol.

$4.8K Liq.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

80%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$109K Vol.

$45.1K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

14%

$103K Vol.

$16.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

96%

June 30

$18.8K Vol.

$12.6K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

4%

$80.7K Vol.

$16.5K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

72%

December 31

$169K Vol.

$21.0K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

98%

Kevin Warsh

$41M Vol.

$3M today

$2M Liq.

85

Ends in 6 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 119 active markets for FOMC that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $247.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on FOMC predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.