Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with steady May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and 4.3% unemployment, has kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026. This data-dependent stance, reinforced in recent FOMC minutes highlighting upside inflation risks over near-term easing, creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of at least one 25 basis point hike before year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts, while incoming Fed leadership adds further uncertainty to the policy path versus historical base rates of gradual adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,453,282 交易量
$1,453,282 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,453,282 交易量
$1,453,282 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with steady May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and 4.3% unemployment, has kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026. This data-dependent stance, reinforced in recent FOMC minutes highlighting upside inflation risks over near-term easing, creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of at least one 25 basis point hike before year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts, while incoming Fed leadership adds further uncertainty to the policy path versus historical base rates of gradual adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,453,282結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with steady May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and 4.3% unemployment, has kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026. This data-dependent stance, reinforced in recent FOMC minutes highlighting upside inflation risks over near-term easing, creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of at least one 25 basis point hike before year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts, while incoming Fed leadership adds further uncertainty to the policy path versus historical base rates of gradual adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,453,282結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with steady May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and 4.3% unemployment, has kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026. This data-dependent stance, reinforced in recent FOMC minutes highlighting upside inflation risks over near-term easing, creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of at least one 25 basis point hike before year-end. The May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts, while incoming Fed leadership adds further uncertainty to the policy path versus historical base rates of gradual adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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