The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting, amid elevated but potentially transitory inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy price surges, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC minutes and official communications emphasize data dependence, with officials noting risks to both sides of the dual mandate while maintaining an easing bias in forward guidance. Upcoming June and July meetings, along with the next CPI and labor-market releases, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus if inflation persists above target. Trader positioning reflects the base case of policy remaining on hold this year, consistent with futures markets pricing limited tightening through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,355,003 Vol.
$1,355,003 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Oui
$1,355,003 Vol.
$1,355,003 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting, amid elevated but potentially transitory inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy price surges, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC minutes and official communications emphasize data dependence, with officials noting risks to both sides of the dual mandate while maintaining an easing bias in forward guidance. Upcoming June and July meetings, along with the next CPI and labor-market releases, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus if inflation persists above target. Trader positioning reflects the base case of policy remaining on hold this year, consistent with futures markets pricing limited tightening through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,355,003Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting, amid elevated but potentially transitory inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy price surges, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC minutes and official communications emphasize data dependence, with officials noting risks to both sides of the dual mandate while maintaining an easing bias in forward guidance. Upcoming June and July meetings, along with the next CPI and labor-market releases, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus if inflation persists above target. Trader positioning reflects the base case of policy remaining on hold this year, consistent with futures markets pricing limited tightening through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,355,003Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting, amid elevated but potentially transitory inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy price surges, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC minutes and official communications emphasize data dependence, with officials noting risks to both sides of the dual mandate while maintaining an easing bias in forward guidance. Upcoming June and July meetings, along with the next CPI and labor-market releases, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus if inflation persists above target. Trader positioning reflects the base case of policy remaining on hold this year, consistent with futures markets pricing limited tightening through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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