Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 primarily because the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting and appears data-dependent amid mixed signals. April CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held steady near 4.3-4.4%. FOMC minutes revealed a majority of officials open to policy firming only if inflation remains persistently above target, yet the median modal path still anticipates modest easing later in 2026 rather than hikes. With the next CPI release due June 10 and labor market resilience supporting a hold stance, market-implied odds reflect consensus that any tightening is more likely deferred beyond 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,349,666 Vol.
$1,349,666 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,349,666 Vol.
$1,349,666 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 primarily because the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting and appears data-dependent amid mixed signals. April CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held steady near 4.3-4.4%. FOMC minutes revealed a majority of officials open to policy firming only if inflation remains persistently above target, yet the median modal path still anticipates modest easing later in 2026 rather than hikes. With the next CPI release due June 10 and labor market resilience supporting a hold stance, market-implied odds reflect consensus that any tightening is more likely deferred beyond 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,349,666Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 primarily because the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting and appears data-dependent amid mixed signals. April CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held steady near 4.3-4.4%. FOMC minutes revealed a majority of officials open to policy firming only if inflation remains persistently above target, yet the median modal path still anticipates modest easing later in 2026 rather than hikes. With the next CPI release due June 10 and labor market resilience supporting a hold stance, market-implied odds reflect consensus that any tightening is more likely deferred beyond 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,349,666Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 68.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 primarily because the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 29 meeting and appears data-dependent amid mixed signals. April CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held steady near 4.3-4.4%. FOMC minutes revealed a majority of officials open to policy firming only if inflation remains persistently above target, yet the median modal path still anticipates modest easing later in 2026 rather than hikes. With the next CPI release due June 10 and labor market resilience supporting a hold stance, market-implied odds reflect consensus that any tightening is more likely deferred beyond 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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