Recent economic data show the federal funds rate holding near 3.5-4.25% amid headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment around 4.1%, with resilient job growth and sticky core inflation preventing a clear path to easing. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted energy costs, supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish communications and delaying projected cuts until mid-2027 per economist surveys and futures pricing. Trader consensus prices an unchanged January 2027 decision at 58% as the baseline, reflecting the central bank's emphasis on sustained 2% inflation progress before any adjustment, while the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture tail risks from further supply shocks. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with October CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Vol.
$71,033 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Vol.
$71,033 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data show the federal funds rate holding near 3.5-4.25% amid headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment around 4.1%, with resilient job growth and sticky core inflation preventing a clear path to easing. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted energy costs, supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish communications and delaying projected cuts until mid-2027 per economist surveys and futures pricing. Trader consensus prices an unchanged January 2027 decision at 58% as the baseline, reflecting the central bank's emphasis on sustained 2% inflation progress before any adjustment, while the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture tail risks from further supply shocks. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with October CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these market-implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$71,033End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data show the federal funds rate holding near 3.5-4.25% amid headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment around 4.1%, with resilient job growth and sticky core inflation preventing a clear path to easing. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted energy costs, supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish communications and delaying projected cuts until mid-2027 per economist surveys and futures pricing. Trader consensus prices an unchanged January 2027 decision at 58% as the baseline, reflecting the central bank's emphasis on sustained 2% inflation progress before any adjustment, while the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture tail risks from further supply shocks. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with October CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these market-implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$71,033End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data show the federal funds rate holding near 3.5-4.25% amid headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment around 4.1%, with resilient job growth and sticky core inflation preventing a clear path to easing. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted energy costs, supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish communications and delaying projected cuts until mid-2027 per economist surveys and futures pricing. Trader consensus prices an unchanged January 2027 decision at 58% as the baseline, reflecting the central bank's emphasis on sustained 2% inflation progress before any adjustment, while the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture tail risks from further supply shocks. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with October CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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