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icon for 2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？
エコノミー·ビジネス

2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？

icon for 2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？
エコノミー·ビジネス

2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？

0（0ベーシスポイント） 80.6%

1回（25ベーシスポイント） 13%

2（50ベーシスポイント） 4.0%

3回（75ベーシスポイント） <1%

Polymarket

$37,859,615 Vol.

0（0ベーシスポイント） 80.6%

1回（25ベーシスポイント） 13%

2（50ベーシスポイント） 4.0%

3回（75ベーシスポイント） <1%

Polymarket

$37,859,615 Vol.

0（0ベーシスポイント）

$5,463,472 Vol.

81%

1回（25ベーシスポイント）

$1,792,789 Vol.

13%

2（50ベーシスポイント）

$1,795,412 Vol.

4%

3回（75ベーシスポイント）

$1,831,866 Vol.

1%

4回（100ベーシスポイント）

$1,643,768 Vol.

<1%

5回（125ベーシスポイント）

$1,827,624 Vol.

<1%

6回（150ベーシスポイント）

$3,140,655 Vol.

<1%

7回（175ベーシスポイント）

$2,463,918 Vol.

<1%

8回（200ベーシスポイント）

$2,509,896 Vol.

<1%

9回（225ベーシスポイント）

$3,597,713 Vol.

<1%

10（250ベーシスポイント）

$4,276,501 Vol.

<1%

11回（275ベーシスポイント）

$4,361,979 Vol.

<1%

12回以上（300bps以上）

$3,154,070 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report reinforced the higher-for-longer stance, prompting economists to shift forecasts and markets to price out easing entirely for the balance of the year. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC decisions plus fresh CPI and employment data that could test whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or opens a narrow path for a single 25-basis-point move.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$37,859,615
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report reinforced the higher-for-longer stance, prompting economists to shift forecasts and markets to price out easing entirely for the balance of the year. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC decisions plus fresh CPI and employment data that could test whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or opens a narrow path for a single 25-basis-point move.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$37,859,615
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」はPolymarket上の13個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0（0ベーシスポイント）」で81%、次いで「1回（25ベーシスポイント）」が13%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、81¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に81%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」は$37.9 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Sep 29, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている13個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「0（0ベーシスポイント）」で81%であり、市場がこの結果に81%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1回（25ベーシスポイント）」で13%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。