Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report reinforced the higher-for-longer stance, prompting economists to shift forecasts and markets to price out easing entirely for the balance of the year. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC decisions plus fresh CPI and employment data that could test whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or opens a narrow path for a single 25-basis-point move.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFederal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% with unanimous vote
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%11%
The June 17, 2026 FOMC statement announced the decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting the Fed's ongoing commitment to its dual mandate amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. The unanimous vote indicated consensus to hold rates steady for now, with no rate cuts implemented in 2026 to date.
Fed holds rates steady as Warsh signals rate hikes ahead
0 (0 bps) drops to 0%13%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a hawkish pivot and fewer expected rate cuts in 2026.
Fed officials project only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%11%
Fed projections released in mid-2026 indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainties including geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Philadelphia Fed President signals potential modest rate cut in late 2026
1 (25 bps) jumps to 22%5%
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson indicated a conditional possibility of a modest additional rate cut in the second half of 2026, depending on economic performance. This statement influenced market speculation about a single cut rather than multiple cuts.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%12%
Fed Chair Powell stated that progress on inflation will be slower than hoped, and the median projection showed just one 25 bps cut in 2026. Market expectations for cuts pulled back sharply, with probabilities for no cuts rising significantly after this announcement.
Goldman Sachs Economists Abandon Forecast for 2026 Fed Rate Cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%9%
Following a stronger-than-expected labor market report, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, pushing their forecast to 2027.
Goldman Sachs drops Fed rate cut forecast for 2026 on strong jobs data
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%
Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their rate cut forecasts to 2027, predicting no rate cuts at all in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Goldman Sachs Economists No Longer Expect Any Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to project zero rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing the probability of the '0 (0 bps)' outcome to near-certainty.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast, no Fed rate cuts expected in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%7%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This reflects a shift in market sentiment towards zero cuts for the year.
Goldman Sachs no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to strong labor market
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists revised their outlook, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market. This further solidified market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 3%7%
In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
In early June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 bps cut for the rest of the year, with inflation progress slower than hoped and geopolitical risks weighing. This led markets to sharply reduce odds of multiple cuts, pushing the zero cuts option price to near 80%.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%25%
In early June 2026, the Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation progress and geopolitical uncertainties. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero or one cut, reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%33%
In May 2026, major banks revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market. Goldman Sachs pushed back cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, while BofA expects no cuts in 2026, reflecting growing market skepticism about rate reductions this year.
Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger labor market and elevated inflation risks, pushing expected cuts to December 2026 and beyond. This influenced market pricing toward zero cuts in 2026.
Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions dim hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%23%
By May 2026, surging inflation expectations and supply chain pressures linked to the Iran war led to increased skepticism about Fed rate cuts. Internal Fed dissent against easing and rising commodity prices pushed markets to sharply lower the probability of any cuts in 2026.
Unusually divided Federal Reserve holds rates steady as four members dissent
0 (0 bps) surges to 58%24%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision saw a rare four dissents, with some members objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% in April statement
0 (0 bps) rises to 41%2%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, citing solid economic activity and stable labor market conditions. This decision further diminished market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, reflected in rising probabilities for zero cuts.
Federal Reserve meeting expected to hold rates amid inflation and geopolitical risks
Ahead of the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, markets widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady due to inflation near 4.7% and oil price pressures from Iran tensions. This cautious stance reinforced market views that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or delayed.
Fed holds rates steady amid divided vote
The FOMC voted 8-4 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with dissenting members favoring a 25bp cut. The split vote and cautious language solidified no-change pricing for the June meeting.
FOMC meeting results show no rate change, dissent among policymakers
0 (0 bps) surges to 77%39%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenters favoring cuts. The minutes indicated market expectations for rate cuts shifted later in the year, with no immediate easing, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid divided committee and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 40%16%
In April 2026, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with four dissenting votes, reflecting internal divisions. The statement noted ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious stance and delaying rate cuts.
Four Fed policymakers dissent as central bank pauses rates again
0 (0 bps) surges to 57%19%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but a surprise development saw four policymakers dissent, signaling deep internal divisions and a shift toward a more hawkish stance.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in April FOMC statement amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 69%30%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC statement reiterated the decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices. The Committee remained cautious, with some dissenters opposing an easing bias, reinforcing market confidence in no rate cuts for 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical concerns
On April 29, 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing persistent inflation and rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The decision was not unanimous, with some officials favoring a rate cut, but the majority remained cautious given inflation above target and labor market uncertainty.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with rare dissent and Powell's upcoming exit
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%30%
The April FOMC meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with four officials dissenting, the highest since 1992. Chair Powell confirmed his upcoming departure, adding uncertainty. The Fed cited persistent inflation and mixed labor market signals, signaling readiness to adjust policy but no cuts yet, which dampened market expectations for rate reductions in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion but persistent inflation and elevated uncertainty due to geopolitical risks. The committee emphasized careful assessment of incoming data before any rate adjustments, with one member dissenting for a 25 basis point cut.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizing data-driven approach amid global uncertainties
0 (0 bps) jumps to 22%13%
At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, highlighting the need to carefully assess incoming data and evolving risks, including geopolitical tensions. The decision underscored the Fed's cautious stance and contributed to market expectations of minimal rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% citing inflation uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%14%
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in the Fed maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, highlighting ongoing inflation uncertainty and energy price volatility. This reinforced market expectations of limited or delayed rate cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty
0 (0 bps) surges to 23%16%
At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing ongoing inflation uncertainty and energy price volatility. This decision reinforced market expectations of limited or delayed rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid cautious optimism
0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%10%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reflecting a cautious approach as the Fed awaited clearer signals on inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for cuts remained low following this decision.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid global uncertainties
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%11%
The March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid global uncertainties and mixed economic signals. The Fed emphasized data-driven decision-making and readiness to adjust policy if needed, with some dissent within the committee.
Federal Reserve leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting
1 (25 bps) jumps to 36%8%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and Middle East developments.
FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%4%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% with a 92%+ probability of no change. The meeting included updated economic projections factoring in Iran conflict and tariffs. Market expectations for cuts weakened as the Fed adopted a data-dependent stance.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%1%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation uncertainty and energy prices. The Summary of Economic Projections continued to show a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, maintaining market expectations for limited easing.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizes data-driven approach amid global uncertainties
0 (0 bps) rises to 13%3%
At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, highlighting inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions. The unanimous vote to hold rates reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts, with the Fed emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data before any policy changes.
Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid policy divisions
1 (25 bps) plunges to 14%16%
Fed policymakers showed a divided outlook but generally projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting uncertainty and caution. This official guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead amid inflation concerns
1 (25 bps) dips to 14%3%
On March 18, 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty including geopolitical risks. The updated projections showed only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026, tempering market expectations for aggressive easing.
Fed keeps rates unchanged as war in Middle East and inflation weigh on outlook
0 (0 bps) surges to 31%15%
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rates Amid Middle East Conflict and Elevated Inflation
0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%10%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve maintains rates steady amid elevated inflation and labor market softness
0 (0 bps) dips to 6%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but inflation remaining somewhat elevated. The statement highlighted downside risks to employment and uncertainty about the economic outlook, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. This further dampened market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%7%
The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Fed official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
0 (0 bps) dips to 7%1%
On February 10, 2026, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates this year, supporting the January decision to hold rates steady. This reinforced market expectations of limited or no rate cuts in 2026 amid cautious optimism about the economy.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid slower inflation progress and economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) dips to 14%4%
In February 2026, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC projected just one 25 bps rate cut for the year, citing slower-than-expected inflation progress and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This tempered market expectations, reducing the probability of multiple cuts.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissents favoring 25 bps cut at January FOMC
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
Governor Christopher Waller dissented at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point rate cut due to concerns about labor market weakness and the need for further easing. His dissent highlighted internal Fed debate but did not change the overall decision to hold rates.
Fed Governor Waller advocates for rate cut amid weak labor market
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and economic data. Despite his stance, the Fed did not cut rates, maintaining a cautious approach that kept market expectations for cuts moderate.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
In its first meeting of 2026, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending a streak of three consecutive cuts. Chair Jerome Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady in first 2026 meeting, signaling pause in rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
In January 2026, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, ending a streak of three consecutive cuts. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a pause in rate cuts and reinforcing market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%3%
Following the January meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the rate-cutting campaign was paused, describing policy as close to neutral. This cautious stance led markets to reduce expectations for further cuts in 2026, with the Fed emphasizing data dependency amid persistent inflation and a fragile labor market.
Fed signals pause on rate cuts, emphasizing neutral policy stance
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign in late January 2026, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a watchful waiting approach amid ongoing inflation and labor market concerns. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts.
Federal Reserve signals end to aggressive rate-cutting campaign
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late January 2026, ending the streak of cuts and framing policy as close to neutral. This reinforced market expectations that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or absent.
Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%13%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign after three consecutive cuts, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. This decision reinforced market expectations for fewer or no cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The Fed's January 28, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid solid economic growth but persistent inflation above target. Two members dissented, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal debate on the pace of easing.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in January meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision signaled no rate cuts at the start of 2026, influencing market expectations downward for cuts this year.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
The Fed's FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion but persistent inflation above target. Two members dissented, advocating a 25 bps cut, but the majority favored a cautious stance, signaling no immediate rate cuts. This decision reinforced market expectations of limited or no cuts early in 2026.
FOMC minutes reveal divided views on inflation and rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
Minutes from the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting showed concern about persistent inflation and a divided committee, with some members preferring further cuts while others awaited more data. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of future cuts and inflation risks.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rate Cuts, Holding Benchmark Rate Steady
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, halting its streak of consecutive cuts and signaling a shift to neutral ground.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%2%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforced the market view of limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 22%14%
The Fed's December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections showed a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainty. This led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in December 2025, signaling caution due to inflation remaining above target and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This pause tempered market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) dips to 7%4%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December 2025, marking the third cut that year. The accompanying economic projections indicated inflation would remain above target and the unemployment rate would rise slightly, suggesting a cautious approach to further cuts in 2026. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September 2025. This move was intended to support economic growth amid a slowing labor market and elevated inflation, signaling expectations for only one additional cut in 2026. The market reacted with increased probability for fewer cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive time, signals pause
3 (75 bps) dips to 21%2%
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by another 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut, but signaled a pause and highlighted uncertainty due to incomplete economic data and internal divisions, tempering expectations for aggressive cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction since September 2025. The Fed signaled expectations for only one additional rate cut in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid inflation pressures and a softening labor market. This event increased market confidence in a limited number of cuts in 2026, boosting the price for zero cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts target range for federal funds rate by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) drops to 8%13%
On December 10, 2025, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking part of a series of cuts aimed at supporting the labor market while managing inflation risks. This action reflected concerns about slowing job gains and elevated inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates but signals likely pause and projects only one cut in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%3%
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut but issued new economic projections showing that the median policymaker expects only one quarter-point reduction in 2026, prompting markets to scale back expectations of aggressive easing.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) dips to 23%3%
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December 2025, marking the third cut that year. Policymakers projected only one 25 bps cut in 2026 amid inflation remaining above target and economic uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points at December 2025 meeting
3 (75 bps) plunges to 23%15%
The Fed delivered its third consecutive 25-basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This cut ended 2025 with easing momentum, but uncertainty remained due to missing inflation and jobs data caused by a government shutdown. This event initially supported expectations for further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 21%5%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, but policymakers showed division on future cuts amid inflation concerns and labor market weakness. This set early expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
2 (50 bps) dips to 23%2%
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, aiming to support a slowing economy and a flagging job market. This reinforced market expectations for some easing but also highlighted internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year
1 (25 bps) rises to 11%4%
The Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025, the third consecutive reduction following earlier cuts in September and November. This move aimed to support economic activity amid slowing job growth and inflation pressures, reinforcing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025
5 (125 bps) plunges to 10%26%
In early December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points again to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut that year. This move was aimed at supporting a slowing labor market and moderating inflation, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, aiming to support economic growth and the labor market amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by Quarter Point to 3.75%-4.00% Range
0 (0 bps) dips to 5%1%
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its second consecutive cut and signaling a steady easing cycle heading into 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
2 (50 bps) drops to 20%6%
On October 29, 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps, signaling the start of an easing cycle amid easing inflation but with ongoing economic uncertainty. This was the second consecutive cut, raising expectations for possible further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve delivers second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut
4 (100 bps) plunges to 11%25%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in late October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This confirmed the easing cycle and raised expectations for further cuts, influencing market pricing for 2026 rate cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid easing inflation
2 (50 bps) plunges to 20%16%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the start of an easing cycle as inflation showed signs of abating. This move was seen as a cautious step to balance inflation control with economic support, influencing market expectations for future cuts.
Federal Reserve announces 25 basis point rate cut amid economic pressures
In September 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction in some time, signaling a positive but cautious direction for inflation and borrowing costs. This move raised market hopes for further cuts in 2026, influencing derivative hedging demand and rate-sensitive sectors.
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