The Justice Department closed its criminal probe into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas tied to the central bank’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and found no evidence of criminal conduct beyond policy disagreements over interest rates. Cost overruns of roughly $700 million and Powell’s June 2025 congressional testimony on project details had prompted the inquiry, but the referral to the Fed inspector general yielded no fraud findings and removed any near-term indictment catalyst. With Powell’s term as chair concluded and successor Kevin Warsh in place, trader consensus on Polymarket prices only a low-single-digit implied probability of federal charges by year-end 2026, reflecting high evidentiary thresholds, institutional safeguards on central bank independence, and the absence of fresh investigative activity through late August. Any future inspector general report or congressional developments could theoretically reopen scrutiny, though none are currently scheduled to alter that assessment.