Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Donald Trump remains president through the end of 2026 due to the high procedural thresholds for removal under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers of Congress, while invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet and vice-presidential consensus. No active impeachment proceedings or certification challenges have advanced in the current session, and scheduled legislative or electoral events through year-end lack mechanisms capable of altering tenure before 2027. This pricing aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents complete at least the first two years of a term absent acute incapacity or bipartisan consensus for departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,380,182 Vol.
$10,380,182 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,380,182 Vol.
$10,380,182 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Donald Trump remains president through the end of 2026 due to the high procedural thresholds for removal under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers of Congress, while invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet and vice-presidential consensus. No active impeachment proceedings or certification challenges have advanced in the current session, and scheduled legislative or electoral events through year-end lack mechanisms capable of altering tenure before 2027. This pricing aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents complete at least the first two years of a term absent acute incapacity or bipartisan consensus for departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,380,182End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Donald Trump remains president through the end of 2026 due to the high procedural thresholds for removal under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers of Congress, while invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet and vice-presidential consensus. No active impeachment proceedings or certification challenges have advanced in the current session, and scheduled legislative or electoral events through year-end lack mechanisms capable of altering tenure before 2027. This pricing aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents complete at least the first two years of a term absent acute incapacity or bipartisan consensus for departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,380,182End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Donald Trump remains president through the end of 2026 due to the high procedural thresholds for removal under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers of Congress, while invocation of the 25th Amendment demands broad cabinet and vice-presidential consensus. No active impeachment proceedings or certification challenges have advanced in the current session, and scheduled legislative or electoral events through year-end lack mechanisms capable of altering tenure before 2027. This pricing aligns with historical patterns in which sitting presidents complete at least the first two years of a term absent acute incapacity or bipartisan consensus for departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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