Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through the end of 2026, driven by the substantial procedural and political hurdles to early removal. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers that have not materialized, while invocation of the 25th Amendment for incapacity has seen no supporting actions from the vice president or cabinet. Midterm outcomes, legislative agenda, and institutional norms continue to favor continuity rather than disruption. Historical base rates for involuntary exits remain low absent resignation, confirmed incapacity, or unprecedented scandals, none of which have developed in the current term. This consensus aligns with the absence of active removal proceedings or credible triggers within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,380,642 Vol.
$10,380,642 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,380,642 Vol.
$10,380,642 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through the end of 2026, driven by the substantial procedural and political hurdles to early removal. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers that have not materialized, while invocation of the 25th Amendment for incapacity has seen no supporting actions from the vice president or cabinet. Midterm outcomes, legislative agenda, and institutional norms continue to favor continuity rather than disruption. Historical base rates for involuntary exits remain low absent resignation, confirmed incapacity, or unprecedented scandals, none of which have developed in the current term. This consensus aligns with the absence of active removal proceedings or credible triggers within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,380,642End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through the end of 2026, driven by the substantial procedural and political hurdles to early removal. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers that have not materialized, while invocation of the 25th Amendment for incapacity has seen no supporting actions from the vice president or cabinet. Midterm outcomes, legislative agenda, and institutional norms continue to favor continuity rather than disruption. Historical base rates for involuntary exits remain low absent resignation, confirmed incapacity, or unprecedented scandals, none of which have developed in the current term. This consensus aligns with the absence of active removal proceedings or credible triggers within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,380,642End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through the end of 2026, driven by the substantial procedural and political hurdles to early removal. Impeachment and conviction require majorities in both chambers that have not materialized, while invocation of the 25th Amendment for incapacity has seen no supporting actions from the vice president or cabinet. Midterm outcomes, legislative agenda, and institutional norms continue to favor continuity rather than disruption. Historical base rates for involuntary exits remain low absent resignation, confirmed incapacity, or unprecedented scandals, none of which have developed in the current term. This consensus aligns with the absence of active removal proceedings or credible triggers within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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