Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, continues under Republican congressional majorities that limit prospects for successful impeachment or Senate conviction. Recent executive orders on citizenship, trade, and nominations demonstrate ongoing governance into August 2026. Past tensions, including April 2026 Iran-related disputes that prompted limited Democratic calls for 25th Amendment invocation, produced no sustained bipartisan momentum or procedural advances toward removal. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could shift House control and increase oversight risks, yet historical patterns and current Senate thresholds make conviction before 2027 unlikely absent major unforeseen developments. Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with these structural and institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$10,511,908 Vol.
$10,511,908 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$10,511,908 Vol.
$10,511,908 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, continues under Republican congressional majorities that limit prospects for successful impeachment or Senate conviction. Recent executive orders on citizenship, trade, and nominations demonstrate ongoing governance into August 2026. Past tensions, including April 2026 Iran-related disputes that prompted limited Democratic calls for 25th Amendment invocation, produced no sustained bipartisan momentum or procedural advances toward removal. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could shift House control and increase oversight risks, yet historical patterns and current Senate thresholds make conviction before 2027 unlikely absent major unforeseen developments. Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with these structural and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,511,908End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, continues under Republican congressional majorities that limit prospects for successful impeachment or Senate conviction. Recent executive orders on citizenship, trade, and nominations demonstrate ongoing governance into August 2026. Past tensions, including April 2026 Iran-related disputes that prompted limited Democratic calls for 25th Amendment invocation, produced no sustained bipartisan momentum or procedural advances toward removal. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could shift House control and increase oversight risks, yet historical patterns and current Senate thresholds make conviction before 2027 unlikely absent major unforeseen developments. Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with these structural and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,511,908End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, continues under Republican congressional majorities that limit prospects for successful impeachment or Senate conviction. Recent executive orders on citizenship, trade, and nominations demonstrate ongoing governance into August 2026. Past tensions, including April 2026 Iran-related disputes that prompted limited Democratic calls for 25th Amendment invocation, produced no sustained bipartisan momentum or procedural advances toward removal. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could shift House control and increase oversight risks, yet historical patterns and current Senate thresholds make conviction before 2027 unlikely absent major unforeseen developments. Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with these structural and institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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