**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues. Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,042,701 Vol.
2026/06/30
6月30日
<1%
12月31日
16%
$18,042,701 Vol.
6月30日
$3,420,926 Vol.
<1%
12月31日
$3,014,173 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict.
This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues.
Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
音量
$18,042,701終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict.
This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues.
Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$18,042,701終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues. Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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