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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.3%

No Head of State 2.6%

Polymarket

$37,546,242 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.3%

No Head of State 2.6%

Polymarket

$37,546,242 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,417,466 Vol.

84%

Reza Pahlavi

$649,707 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,301,801 Vol.

3%

No Head of State

$1,132,338 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$900,982 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,409,512 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$752,791 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$927,270 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$827,538 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$432,329 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,000,825 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$525,538 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,134,943 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$798,667 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$391,847 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,912 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$138,797 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$205,712 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$191,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$829,871 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$425,058 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,341,512 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$234,141 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$379,888 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,034,875 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,091,256 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$275,534 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$248,562 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$299,541 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$334,608 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The decisive vote installed Mojtaba as supreme leader shortly after the assassination, establishing him as the incumbent with institutional backing from the clerical body and security apparatus. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, remain at single-digit or lower odds due to the completed succession process and lack of subsequent challenges or procedural reversals. Trader consensus prices in the stability of this outcome through year-end absent major disruptions to the current leadership structure.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,546,242
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The decisive vote installed Mojtaba as supreme leader shortly after the assassination, establishing him as the incumbent with institutional backing from the clerical body and security apparatus. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, remain at single-digit or lower odds due to the completed succession process and lack of subsequent challenges or procedural reversals. Trader consensus prices in the stability of this outcome through year-end absent major disruptions to the current leadership structure.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,546,242
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 84%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $37.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.