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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%

No Head of State 7.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,388,356 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%

No Head of State 7.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,388,356 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,379,651 Vol.

77%

No Head of State

$1,127,275 Vol.

8%

Alireza Arafi

$2,297,981 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$646,399 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$896,353 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$749,631 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$993,424 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$824,453 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,404,608 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Rouhani

$923,568 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$428,962 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$522,276 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,082,962 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,132,013 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$795,782 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$388,757 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,200 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$133,851 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$200,424 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$188,412 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$826,715 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$420,178 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,335,357 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$229,699 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$375,391 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,028,256 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$272,318 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$245,362 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$295,517 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$331,718 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a dominant 77% implied probability because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran war. The IRGC and hardline factions backed the choice to ensure continuity and regime cohesion amid conflict and internal pressures, elevating him despite limited prior public profile. As the incumbent since early March with no reported challenges or health events altering his position through August 2026, traders see strong continuity through year-end. Lower-priced alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Reza Pahlavi reflect limited institutional support or exile status, while a “no head of state” outcome remains a distant contingency tied to extreme instability scenarios.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,388,356
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a dominant 77% implied probability because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran war. The IRGC and hardline factions backed the choice to ensure continuity and regime cohesion amid conflict and internal pressures, elevating him despite limited prior public profile. As the incumbent since early March with no reported challenges or health events altering his position through August 2026, traders see strong continuity through year-end. Lower-priced alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Reza Pahlavi reflect limited institutional support or exile status, while a “no head of state” outcome remains a distant contingency tied to extreme instability scenarios.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,388,356
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 77%, followed by "No Head of State" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $37.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.