Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The decisive vote installed Mojtaba as supreme leader shortly after the assassination, establishing him as the incumbent with institutional backing from the clerical body and security apparatus. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, remain at single-digit or lower odds due to the completed succession process and lack of subsequent challenges or procedural reversals. Trader consensus prices in the stability of this outcome through year-end absent major disruptions to the current leadership structure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.3%
No Head of State 2.6%
$37,546,242 Vol.
$37,546,242 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
3%
No Head of State
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.3%
No Head of State 2.6%
$37,546,242 Vol.
$37,546,242 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
3%
No Head of State
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The decisive vote installed Mojtaba as supreme leader shortly after the assassination, establishing him as the incumbent with institutional backing from the clerical body and security apparatus. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, remain at single-digit or lower odds due to the completed succession process and lack of subsequent challenges or procedural reversals. Trader consensus prices in the stability of this outcome through year-end absent major disruptions to the current leadership structure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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