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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.6%

No Head of State 5.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.1%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,459,360 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.6%

No Head of State 5.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.1%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,459,360 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,400,664 Vol.

81%

No Head of State

$1,130,271 Vol.

6%

Alireza Arafi

$2,299,693 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$647,425 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$898,843 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,407,378 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$925,131 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$750,592 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$430,195 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$825,404 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$523,455 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$998,689 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,087,806 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,132,964 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$796,733 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$389,708 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,677 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$134,802 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$201,597 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$189,421 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$827,731 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$421,129 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,337,699 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$230,650 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$377,948 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,032,941 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$273,395 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$246,422 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$296,468 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$332,669 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80.5% implied probability as Iran’s leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts appointed him successor shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 28, 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike. His selection consolidated support within the IRGC and conservative clerical networks despite the system’s historical rejection of hereditary succession. Persistent questions about Mojtaba’s own injuries from that attack, limited public appearances, and conflicting official statements on his condition through mid-2026 have kept alternative names such as Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Hassan Khomeini in play at low single-digit odds. Traders appear to price in continuity under the current power structure while discounting rapid challenges absent new escalations or verified incapacity before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,459,360
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80.5% implied probability as Iran’s leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts appointed him successor shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 28, 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike. His selection consolidated support within the IRGC and conservative clerical networks despite the system’s historical rejection of hereditary succession. Persistent questions about Mojtaba’s own injuries from that attack, limited public appearances, and conflicting official statements on his condition through mid-2026 have kept alternative names such as Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Hassan Khomeini in play at low single-digit odds. Traders appear to price in continuity under the current power structure while discounting rapid challenges absent new escalations or verified incapacity before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,459,360
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 81%, followed by "No Head of State" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $37.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.