Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80 percent implied probability because the Assembly of Experts selected him as supreme leader in March 2026 shortly after Ali Khamenei’s assassination during the 2026 Iran war, establishing him as the sitting head of state. Traders view continuity through the end of the year as the baseline scenario given his backing from hardline clerical and IRGC networks, the absence of immediate challenges to his position, and the regime’s focus on internal cohesion amid active regional tensions. Lower-priced alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect residual speculation about alternative clerical or military figures but remain distant because no credible succession process or institutional shift has emerged since the March vote. The market’s pricing embeds the expectation that late-2026 developments capable of altering leadership would require either a major escalation in the ongoing conflict or an unprecedented internal rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 80.5%
No Head of State 5.9%
Alireza Arafi 4.2%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,442,737 Vol.
$37,442,737 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
80%
No Head of State
6%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 80.5%
No Head of State 5.9%
Alireza Arafi 4.2%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,442,737 Vol.
$37,442,737 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
80%
No Head of State
6%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80 percent implied probability because the Assembly of Experts selected him as supreme leader in March 2026 shortly after Ali Khamenei’s assassination during the 2026 Iran war, establishing him as the sitting head of state. Traders view continuity through the end of the year as the baseline scenario given his backing from hardline clerical and IRGC networks, the absence of immediate challenges to his position, and the regime’s focus on internal cohesion amid active regional tensions. Lower-priced alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect residual speculation about alternative clerical or military figures but remain distant because no credible succession process or institutional shift has emerged since the March vote. The market’s pricing embeds the expectation that late-2026 developments capable of altering leadership would require either a major escalation in the ongoing conflict or an unprecedented internal rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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