Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, including indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and reported progress toward a framework addressing the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions, have sustained trader expectations that no ground invasion will occur before 2027. U.S. and Israeli operations since February 2026 have relied on airstrikes, missile campaigns, and naval measures such as blockades rather than committing forces to establish territorial control, aligning with stated objectives focused on degrading capabilities without occupation. The extended ceasefire and absence of large-scale troop deployments or invasion plans through late May 2026 reinforce the 84.5% implied probability for No, though escalation risks remain if talks collapse.