**Recent diplomatic progress toward de-escalation explains the strong trader consensus favoring "No."** Following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that initiated major hostilities, Iran and the United States reached a memorandum of understanding on June 14–15 to end active fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 60-day window for further talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and asset releases. The framework, set for formal signing on June 19, extends the April ceasefire and shifts focus from military confrontation to mediated negotiations involving issues like uranium enrichment and maritime access. No ground invasion has occurred despite earlier U.S. force buildups and limited operational considerations; current actions center on sustained diplomacy under the Trump administration. This trajectory, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers in recent weeks, underpins the 88.5% implied probability that the United States will not launch a full-scale invasion of Iran before 2027.