**Ongoing but contained U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 strikes have centered on air and naval targets around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations.** Recent tit-for-tat incidents through early September, including strikes on shipping and coastal sites, have not escalated to invasion planning, with analysts citing the need for over 100,000 troops, high casualties, and severe domestic opposition as major barriers. President Trump has signaled expectations that the conflict will conclude after November 2026 midterms while maintaining economic sanctions and threats of targeted strikes, such as on fortified nuclear sites. Diplomatic channels via Oman and a fragile June memorandum, though strained, reflect continued preference for pressure and negotiation over full-scale invasion. Trader consensus at roughly 16% probability for a U.S. invasion before 2027 aligns with these constraints and the absence of authorizing moves toward ground forces.