Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a durable ceasefire and nuclear framework, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sustain trader expectations that no ground invasion will occur before 2027. U.S. and Israeli operations since February 2026 have relied on air and missile strikes to target nuclear and missile sites without committing forces for territorial control. The April 2026 Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, extended through late May amid reported progress on a memorandum of understanding, has held despite limited June exchanges of strikes. President Trump has signaled openness to a deal resolving sanctions and enrichment issues, consistent with the 84.5% implied probability against invasion.