Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a durable peace agreement, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, anchor trader expectations against a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027. The February 28, 2026 launch of U.S.-Israeli air and missile strikes under Operation Epic Fury degraded Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities without committing ground forces for territorial control, consistent with stated objectives focused on threats elimination rather than regime change via occupation. Recent late-May and early-June 2026 strikes on missile sites and vessels, followed by limited Iranian retaliation, have not shifted to large-scale troop deployments, while indirect talks mediated by regional actors show reported progress on framework terms. President Trump has signaled openness to a deal amid these dynamics, sustaining the 84.5% implied probability for no invasion.