Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a nuclear agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, following the April 2026 ceasefire after February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, form the primary driver behind the 81.5% trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. These diplomatic efforts, mediated in part by Pakistan and advanced in late-May reports of a nearing memorandum of understanding, reflect administration emphasis on de-escalation over ground operations amid high logistical and political costs. No U.S. forces have established territorial control in Iran, consistent with historical patterns of air and naval actions without full-scale invasion. A breakdown in talks or renewed escalation could alter probabilities, though current signals favor continued diplomacy through the resolution window.