Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a peace agreement, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, underpin the 84.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027. The February 28, 2026, launch of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile operations under Operation Epic Fury targeted Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership sites without deploying ground forces for territorial control. A ceasefire took effect in early April, followed by limited subsequent strikes and indirect talks showing progress on framework terms. President Trump has signaled openness to a deal amid these dynamics, with analysts highlighting the prohibitive costs and risks of any ground campaign relative to stated objectives of degrading capabilities rather than occupation.