Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a nuclear agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, following the April 2026 ceasefire after February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, form the primary driver behind the 81.5% trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. These diplomatic efforts, mediated in part by Pakistan and advanced in late-May reports of a nearing memorandum of understanding, reflect administration emphasis on de-escalation over ground operations amid high logistical and political costs. No U.S. forces have established territorial control in Iran, consistent with historical patterns of air and naval actions without full-scale invasion. A breakdown in talks or renewed escalation could alter probabilities, though current signals favor continued diplomacy through the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$32,808,472 Объем
$32,808,472 Объем
Да
$32,808,472 Объем
$32,808,472 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a nuclear agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, following the April 2026 ceasefire after February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, form the primary driver behind the 81.5% trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. These diplomatic efforts, mediated in part by Pakistan and advanced in late-May reports of a nearing memorandum of understanding, reflect administration emphasis on de-escalation over ground operations amid high logistical and political costs. No U.S. forces have established territorial control in Iran, consistent with historical patterns of air and naval actions without full-scale invasion. A breakdown in talks or renewed escalation could alter probabilities, though current signals favor continued diplomacy through the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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