Ongoing US-Iran negotiations and an extended ceasefire since April 2026 have anchored trader expectations against a ground invasion before 2027. US and Israeli actions since late February have relied on airstrikes, targeted strikes, and naval blockades rather than deploying conventional forces to seize territory, aligning with stated goals of degrading missile and nuclear capabilities without occupation. Recent statements from US officials emphasize diplomatic channels on nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, with no reported large-scale troop movements or invasion planning through early June. Congressional limits and public skepticism toward broader involvement further support the 83.5% implied probability for no invasion, though any collapse in talks could alter the outlook.