Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including indirect talks mediated by Pakistan on nuclear issues, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz access, have reinforced trader expectations that no U.S. ground invasion will occur before 2027. Following the February-to-May 2026 conflict involving U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and naval measures under Operation Epic Fury, an extended ceasefire has held without large-scale troop deployments or efforts to establish territorial control in Iran. U.S. policy has emphasized capability degradation through strikes and blockades rather than occupation, consistent with stated objectives and recent signals favoring a framework agreement over escalation. This positioning aligns with the 84.5% implied probability for no invasion, though renewed tensions could alter the trajectory if talks stall.