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icon for 美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?

美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?

icon for 美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?

美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?

12月 31

12月 31

16% 概率
Polymarket

$33,828,287 交易量

16% 概率
Polymarket

$33,828,287 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a durable peace agreement, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, anchor trader expectations against a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027. The February 28, 2026 launch of U.S.-Israeli air and missile strikes under Operation Epic Fury degraded Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities without committing ground forces for territorial control, consistent with stated objectives focused on threats elimination rather than regime change via occupation. Recent late-May and early-June 2026 strikes on missile sites and vessels, followed by limited Iranian retaliation, have not shifted to large-scale troop deployments, while indirect talks mediated by regional actors show reported progress on framework terms. President Trump has signaled openness to a deal amid these dynamics, sustaining the 84.5% implied probability for no invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$33,828,287
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a durable peace agreement, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, anchor trader expectations against a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027. The February 28, 2026 launch of U.S.-Israeli air and missile strikes under Operation Epic Fury degraded Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities without committing ground forces for territorial control, consistent with stated objectives focused on threats elimination rather than regime change via occupation. Recent late-May and early-June 2026 strikes on missile sites and vessels, followed by limited Iranian retaliation, have not shifted to large-scale troop deployments, while indirect talks mediated by regional actors show reported progress on framework terms. President Trump has signaled openness to a deal amid these dynamics, sustaining the 84.5% implied probability for no invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$33,828,341
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗?",概率为 16%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 16¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 16%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?"已产生 $33.8 million 的总交易量(自Nov 5, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?"的当前领先者是"美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗?",概率为 16%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 16%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国会在2027年之前入侵伊朗吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。