U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on a maximum-pressure campaign of sanctions, secondary tariffs targeting oil suppliers, and executive orders declaring a national emergency, including the May indictment of Raúl Castro and designations of regime figures. These steps, paired with increased reconnaissance flights and naval presence in the Caribbean, have prompted Cuban defensive preparations and rhetoric about resistance. No confirmed U.S. military offensive to seize Cuban territory has occurred by mid-year. Traders assign the 78.5% probability to no invasion because the pattern matches prior U.S. strategies of economic coercion that stop short of direct intervention, amid escalation risks, competing foreign policy demands, and historical reluctance for Caribbean military action. Resolution requires verifiable commencement of offensive operations by December 31.