The Trump administration's January 2026 executive order imposing an oil import blockade, coupled with tariffs on third-country suppliers and expanded sanctions, has driven intensified economic pressure on Cuba aimed at extracting concessions and advancing regime change without committing forces. Military signaling—including Caribbean carrier deployments, increased reconnaissance flights, and asset positioning—has raised leverage and speculation, especially after the May indictment of Raúl Castro and amid Cuba's deepening fuel and power shortages. Officials have repeatedly stated that no invasion is planned or imminent, preferring a peaceful transition, while analysts cite major logistical hurdles such as the scale of troops required and risks of urban resistance. Absent a major escalation trigger by mid-year, trader consensus assigns a 76.5% probability to no U.S. invasion occurring in 2026.