Skip to main content
icon for 米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?

米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?

icon for 米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?

米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?

はい

24% 確率
Polymarket

$2,794,759 Vol.

はい

24% 確率
Polymarket

$2,794,759 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. has intensified economic pressure on Cuba through a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency, an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, and indictments, following the capture of Venezuela's Maduro and amid Cuba's acute fuel and humanitarian crisis. Diplomatic talks have produced Cuban prisoner releases and discussions of economic reforms or a "deal," with Trump officials signaling regime change goals short of immediate military action. While naval assets have been positioned in the Caribbean and some Pentagon planning noted, senior commanders have denied active invasion rehearsals, and the administration has emphasized coercive diplomacy over direct intervention. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no 2026 invasion, reflecting the high threshold for full-scale military commitment, ongoing negotiations, and preference for non-kinetic leverage before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$2,794,759
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. has intensified economic pressure on Cuba through a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency, an oil blockade targeting third-country suppliers, expanded sanctions, and indictments, following the capture of Venezuela's Maduro and amid Cuba's acute fuel and humanitarian crisis. Diplomatic talks have produced Cuban prisoner releases and discussions of economic reforms or a "deal," with Trump officials signaling regime change goals short of immediate military action. While naval assets have been positioned in the Caribbean and some Pentagon planning noted, senior commanders have denied active invasion rehearsals, and the administration has emphasized coercive diplomacy over direct intervention. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no 2026 invasion, reflecting the high threshold for full-scale military commitment, ongoing negotiations, and preference for non-kinetic leverage before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$2,794,759
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年にアメリカがキューバに侵攻しますか?」で24%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、24¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に24%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?」は$2.8 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Jan 4, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年にアメリカがキューバに侵攻しますか?」で24%であり、市場がこの結果に24%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米国は2026年にキューバを侵略するでしょうか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。