US-Cuba relations have deteriorated sharply in 2026 amid an American oil blockade, expanded sanctions, and an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, yet Washington has repeatedly signaled a preference for a negotiated "deal" or regime change short of direct military action. Diplomatic talks confirmed by both sides, including high-level CIA engagement, Cuban prisoner releases, and public statements from President Trump favoring a swift agreement, have tempered escalation risks through mid-June. No invasion has materialized despite naval deployments and warnings, aligning with traders' 75.5% probability on "No" as economic coercion and bilateral negotiations remain the dominant approach. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any shift from current maximum-pressure tactics, could still influence the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$2,798,619 Объем
$2,798,619 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$2,798,619 Объем
$2,798,619 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Cuba relations have deteriorated sharply in 2026 amid an American oil blockade, expanded sanctions, and an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, yet Washington has repeatedly signaled a preference for a negotiated "deal" or regime change short of direct military action. Diplomatic talks confirmed by both sides, including high-level CIA engagement, Cuban prisoner releases, and public statements from President Trump favoring a swift agreement, have tempered escalation risks through mid-June. No invasion has materialized despite naval deployments and warnings, aligning with traders' 75.5% probability on "No" as economic coercion and bilateral negotiations remain the dominant approach. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any shift from current maximum-pressure tactics, could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Объем
$2,798,619Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Cuba relations have deteriorated sharply in 2026 amid an American oil blockade, expanded sanctions, and an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, yet Washington has repeatedly signaled a preference for a negotiated "deal" or regime change short of direct military action. Diplomatic talks confirmed by both sides, including high-level CIA engagement, Cuban prisoner releases, and public statements from President Trump favoring a swift agreement, have tempered escalation risks through mid-June. No invasion has materialized despite naval deployments and warnings, aligning with traders' 75.5% probability on "No" as economic coercion and bilateral negotiations remain the dominant approach. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any shift from current maximum-pressure tactics, could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$2,798,619Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Cuba relations have deteriorated sharply in 2026 amid an American oil blockade, expanded sanctions, and an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, yet Washington has repeatedly signaled a preference for a negotiated "deal" or regime change short of direct military action. Diplomatic talks confirmed by both sides, including high-level CIA engagement, Cuban prisoner releases, and public statements from President Trump favoring a swift agreement, have tempered escalation risks through mid-June. No invasion has materialized despite naval deployments and warnings, aligning with traders' 75.5% probability on "No" as economic coercion and bilateral negotiations remain the dominant approach. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any shift from current maximum-pressure tactics, could still influence the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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