Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027 because U.S. intelligence assessments and defense analyses indicate Beijing has set no fixed timetable and views 2027 primarily as a capability milestone rather than an action deadline. Recent PLA exercises emphasize joint blockades, quarantines, and encirclement over amphibious assault, while senior officer purges have disrupted command readiness for complex operations. Taiwan has accelerated defense procurement, supplementary budgets for munitions and unmanned systems, and Han Kuang drills focused on rapid response and civilian resilience, reinforcing deterrence alongside U.S. and allied signaling. Analysts note that lower-risk coercion through coast guard patrols and legal measures remains Beijing’s nearer-term approach, with higher invasion risks projected for the 2030s once gaps in logistics and nuclear posture narrow.