North Korea's redefinition of South Korea as a hostile state, formalized through constitutional changes and policy shifts in early 2026, underpins trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains improbable before 2027. Pyongyang has prioritized nuclear and missile modernization, naval expansion, and deepened military cooperation with Russia and China—including Xi Jinping's June visit—over costly conventional offensives, consistent with regime survival strategies and deterrence signaling. Ongoing U.S.-South Korea nuclear talks and alliance readiness further raise the threshold for escalation. While North Korea continues artillery and missile tests near the border, no verified preparations for large-scale ground operations have emerged. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major miscalculations during exercises, abrupt leadership changes in Pyongyang, or rapid deterioration in great-power diplomacy affecting the peninsula.