Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied at around 20-21 percent each ahead of the 20 September vote, followed closely by the AfD at 17-18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at 12 percent, with BSW and FDP hovering near the five-percent threshold. This fragmented field, combined with the mixed-member proportional system that awards 78 direct mandates plus compensatory seats, creates substantial uncertainty over final overhang and leveling mandates. The minimum 130-seat chamber expanded to 159 seats in 2023 under similar dynamics, and current projections of 147-160 seats reflect how small shifts in second-vote shares or constituency wins among the top contenders could push totals higher or keep them nearer the baseline. Trader pricing across the listed ranges captures this sensitivity to last-minute movements in turnout and direct-mandate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated153–157 21%
143–147 20%
148–152 20%
<143 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
20%
143–147
20%
148–152
20%
153–157
21%
158–162
18%
163+
14%
153–157 21%
143–147 20%
148–152 20%
<143 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 Vol.
20%
143–147
$0 Vol.
20%
148–152
$0 Vol.
20%
153–157
$0 Vol.
21%
158–162
$0 Vol.
18%
163+
$0 Vol.
14%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied at around 20-21 percent each ahead of the 20 September vote, followed closely by the AfD at 17-18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at 12 percent, with BSW and FDP hovering near the five-percent threshold. This fragmented field, combined with the mixed-member proportional system that awards 78 direct mandates plus compensatory seats, creates substantial uncertainty over final overhang and leveling mandates. The minimum 130-seat chamber expanded to 159 seats in 2023 under similar dynamics, and current projections of 147-160 seats reflect how small shifts in second-vote shares or constituency wins among the top contenders could push totals higher or keep them nearer the baseline. Trader pricing across the listed ranges captures this sensitivity to last-minute movements in turnout and direct-mandate outcomes.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied at around 20-21 percent each ahead of the 20 September vote, followed closely by the AfD at 17-18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at 12 percent, with BSW and FDP hovering near the five-percent threshold. This fragmented field, combined with the mixed-member proportional system that awards 78 direct mandates plus compensatory seats, creates substantial uncertainty over final overhang and leveling mandates. The minimum 130-seat chamber expanded to 159 seats in 2023 under similar dynamics, and current projections of 147-160 seats reflect how small shifts in second-vote shares or constituency wins among the top contenders could push totals higher or keep them nearer the baseline. Trader pricing across the listed ranges captures this sensitivity to last-minute movements in turnout and direct-mandate outcomes.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied at around 20-21 percent each ahead of the 20 September vote, followed closely by the AfD at 17-18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at 12 percent, with BSW and FDP hovering near the five-percent threshold. This fragmented field, combined with the mixed-member proportional system that awards 78 direct mandates plus compensatory seats, creates substantial uncertainty over final overhang and leveling mandates. The minimum 130-seat chamber expanded to 159 seats in 2023 under similar dynamics, and current projections of 147-160 seats reflect how small shifts in second-vote shares or constituency wins among the top contenders could push totals higher or keep them nearer the baseline. Trader pricing across the listed ranges captures this sensitivity to last-minute movements in turnout and direct-mandate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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