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Politics·Global Elections

Berlin State Election Winner

icon for Berlin State Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Berlin State Election Winner

CDU 52%

Grüne 15.7%

Linke 15%

AfD 9.8%

Polymarket

$2,579,334 Vol.

CDU 52%

Grüne 15.7%

Linke 15%

AfD 9.8%

Polymarket

$2,579,334 Vol.

icon for CDU

CDU

$15,900 Vol.

52%

icon for Grüne

Grüne

$28,553 Vol.

16%

icon for Linke

Linke

$12,724 Vol.

15%

icon for AfD

AfD

$2,188,645 Vol.

10%

icon for SPD

SPD

$288,607 Vol.

8%

icon for BSW

BSW

$26,862 Vol.

<1%

icon for FDP

FDP

$10,696 Vol.

<1%

icon for FW

FW

$7,348 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) CDU's consistent lead in recent polls at 21-23% has solidified trader consensus at 52% implied probability for topping the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under Berlin's proportional representation system, positioning it ahead in seat projections with around 32 mandates. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) reinforces this, showing CDU at 21%, SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, BSW at 4%, and FDP at 3%, while the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition falls short of a majority at 44.6% of seats. Stable polling trends over the past 30 days, with minor SPD gains and no disruptive events, explain Grüne and Linke probabilities near 16% in this fragmented field, though upcoming campaign dynamics could shift balances.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,579,334
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) CDU's consistent lead in recent polls at 21-23% has solidified trader consensus at 52% implied probability for topping the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under Berlin's proportional representation system, positioning it ahead in seat projections with around 32 mandates. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) reinforces this, showing CDU at 21%, SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, BSW at 4%, and FDP at 3%, while the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition falls short of a majority at 44.6% of seats. Stable polling trends over the past 30 days, with minor SPD gains and no disruptive events, explain Grüne and Linke probabilities near 16% in this fragmented field, though upcoming campaign dynamics could shift balances.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,579,334
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDU" at 52%, followed by "Grüne" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Berlin State Election Winner" has generated $2.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Berlin State Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Berlin State Election Winner" is "CDU" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Grüne" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Berlin State Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.