Sergio Moro holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Paraná governor race, reflecting trader consensus on his strong positioning ahead of the October 2026 election. His established profile as a former federal judge and senator from the state, combined with high name recognition and consistent polling leads among potential candidates, underpins the market pricing. Other listed contenders, including Alexandre Curi, Rafael Greca, and Enio Verri, trade at single-digit levels, indicating limited momentum or structural barriers such as party alignment and voter base fragmentation. With no major recent announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts reported in the past 30 days, the current odds remain anchored in Moro's longstanding advantages in the race. Upcoming candidate registrations and primary dynamics could still influence final positioning before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 83%
Alexandre Curi 4.0%
Rafael Greca 3.2%
Enio Verri 2.8%
$36,610 Vol.
$36,610 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Sergio Moro
83%
Alexandre Curi
4%
Rafael Greca
3%
Enio Verri
3%
Requião Filho
2%
Guto Silva
2%
Luiz França
1%
Beto Richa
1%
Sergio Moro 83%
Alexandre Curi 4.0%
Rafael Greca 3.2%
Enio Verri 2.8%
$36,610 Vol.
$36,610 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Sergio Moro
$28,947 Vol.
83%
Alexandre Curi
$452 Vol.
4%
Rafael Greca
$352 Vol.
3%
Enio Verri
$309 Vol.
3%
Requião Filho
$5,361 Vol.
2%
Guto Silva
$647 Vol.
2%
Luiz França
$172 Vol.
1%
Beto Richa
$371 Vol.
1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Paraná governor race, reflecting trader consensus on his strong positioning ahead of the October 2026 election. His established profile as a former federal judge and senator from the state, combined with high name recognition and consistent polling leads among potential candidates, underpins the market pricing. Other listed contenders, including Alexandre Curi, Rafael Greca, and Enio Verri, trade at single-digit levels, indicating limited momentum or structural barriers such as party alignment and voter base fragmentation. With no major recent announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts reported in the past 30 days, the current odds remain anchored in Moro's longstanding advantages in the race. Upcoming candidate registrations and primary dynamics could still influence final positioning before the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$36,610End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Paraná governor race, reflecting trader consensus on his strong positioning ahead of the October 2026 election. His established profile as a former federal judge and senator from the state, combined with high name recognition and consistent polling leads among potential candidates, underpins the market pricing. Other listed contenders, including Alexandre Curi, Rafael Greca, and Enio Verri, trade at single-digit levels, indicating limited momentum or structural barriers such as party alignment and voter base fragmentation. With no major recent announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts reported in the past 30 days, the current odds remain anchored in Moro's longstanding advantages in the race. Upcoming candidate registrations and primary dynamics could still influence final positioning before the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,610End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Paraná governor race, reflecting trader consensus on his strong positioning ahead of the October 2026 election. His established profile as a former federal judge and senator from the state, combined with high name recognition and consistent polling leads among potential candidates, underpins the market pricing. Other listed contenders, including Alexandre Curi, Rafael Greca, and Enio Verri, trade at single-digit levels, indicating limited momentum or structural barriers such as party alignment and voter base fragmentation. With no major recent announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts reported in the past 30 days, the current odds remain anchored in Moro's longstanding advantages in the race. Upcoming candidate registrations and primary dynamics could still influence final positioning before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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