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Politics·Israel

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

icon for Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
Politics·Israel

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list. If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s parties are preparing separate lists for Israel’s 2026 legislative elections.** In an August 2026 interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party has no plans to form an electoral alliance with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and believes it can clear the electoral threshold independently. Ben-Gvir has similarly indicated that his party should run alone to maximize right-wing representation. Both leaders have released or advanced independent candidate slates, and recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit positioned to win multiple seats on its own. While they ran on a joint technical list in 2022 before splitting into separate factions, current statements and preparations reflect a deliberate choice against renewed cooperation, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 93% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has floated incentives for a merger to safeguard the broader bloc, but the parties have shown no interest.

Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.

If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.

If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$819
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list. If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list. If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s parties are preparing separate lists for Israel’s 2026 legislative elections.** In an August 2026 interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party has no plans to form an electoral alliance with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and believes it can clear the electoral threshold independently. Ben-Gvir has similarly indicated that his party should run alone to maximize right-wing representation. Both leaders have released or advanced independent candidate slates, and recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit positioned to win multiple seats on its own. While they ran on a joint technical list in 2022 before splitting into separate factions, current statements and preparations reflect a deliberate choice against renewed cooperation, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 93% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has floated incentives for a merger to safeguard the broader bloc, but the parties have shown no interest.

Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.

If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.

If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$819
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list. If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.