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Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Dan Koh 76%

Diann Slavit Baylis 5.5%

Kevin Larivee 5.1%

Mariah Lancaster 4.3%

Polymarket

$35,954 Vol.

Dan Koh 76%

Diann Slavit Baylis 5.5%

Kevin Larivee 5.1%

Mariah Lancaster 4.3%

Polymarket

$35,954 Vol.

Dan Koh

$4,370 Vol.

76%

Diann Slavit Baylis

$5,080 Vol.

5%

Kevin Larivee

$1,472 Vol.

5%

Mariah Lancaster

$1,881 Vol.

4%

Tram Nguyen

$4,197 Vol.

4%

John Beccia

$1,724 Vol.

2%

Rachel Creemers

$2,172 Vol.

2%

Dominick Pangallo

$6,048 Vol.

1%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

$2,179 Vol.

1%

Rick Jakious

$3,469 Vol.

1%

Seth Moulton

$1,800 Vol.

1%

Beth Andres-Beck

$1,562 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Dan Koh at 75.5% implied probability to win the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary on September 1, driven by his commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3.5 million raised, far outpacing rivals like John Beccia and Tram Nguyen—and early ballot qualification in late March after collecting over 2,000 signatures. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Seth Moulton pursuing a U.S. Senate bid against Ed Markey, has drawn a crowded field, fragmenting opposition in this solidly Democratic district. Recent reports from April 21 highlight Koh's momentum from high-profile endorsements including Pete Buttigieg, alongside his White House experience as a Biden deputy, positioning him as the frontrunner absent polls, with Mariah Lancaster and others trailing amid low turnout risks in primaries.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,954
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Dan Koh at 75.5% implied probability to win the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary on September 1, driven by his commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3.5 million raised, far outpacing rivals like John Beccia and Tram Nguyen—and early ballot qualification in late March after collecting over 2,000 signatures. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Seth Moulton pursuing a U.S. Senate bid against Ed Markey, has drawn a crowded field, fragmenting opposition in this solidly Democratic district. Recent reports from April 21 highlight Koh's momentum from high-profile endorsements including Pete Buttigieg, alongside his White House experience as a Biden deputy, positioning him as the frontrunner absent polls, with Mariah Lancaster and others trailing amid low turnout risks in primaries.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,954
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Koh" at 76%, followed by "Diann Slavit Baylis" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $36K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dan Koh" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Diann Slavit Baylis" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.