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icon for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

icon for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Abdul El-Sayed 69%

Haley Stevens 22.9%

Mallory McMorrow 6%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

Polymarket

$643,371 Vol.

Abdul El-Sayed 69%

Haley Stevens 22.9%

Mallory McMorrow 6%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

Polymarket

$643,371 Vol.

Abdul El-Sayed

$145,966 Vol.

69%

Haley Stevens

$41,839 Vol.

23%

Mallory McMorrow

$45,419 Vol.

6%

Rashida Tlaib

$48,546 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Anthony

$32,633 Vol.

<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

$137,605 Vol.

<1%

Andy Levin

$30,220 Vol.

<1%

Matt Sahr

$113,675 Vol.

<1%

Dana Nessel

$47,468 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Abdul El-Sayed leads trader consensus in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic Senate primary for the open seat, reflecting his recent polling advantages, United Auto Workers endorsement, and progressive positioning on healthcare and economic issues. Multiple May surveys, including those sponsored by his campaign and independent outlets, show him ahead of U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow by margins of 3 to 18 points among likely primary voters, though earlier polls were closer. A late-May debate highlighted policy clashes on foreign affairs and party direction, while early-June outside spending—including over $2 million in pro-Stevens television reservations from a pro-Israel super PAC—has drawn counter-messaging from El-Sayed’s side. McMorrow remains a distant third in both polling averages and market pricing ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$643,371
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Abdul El-Sayed leads trader consensus in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic Senate primary for the open seat, reflecting his recent polling advantages, United Auto Workers endorsement, and progressive positioning on healthcare and economic issues. Multiple May surveys, including those sponsored by his campaign and independent outlets, show him ahead of U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow by margins of 3 to 18 points among likely primary voters, though earlier polls were closer. A late-May debate highlighted policy clashes on foreign affairs and party direction, while early-June outside spending—including over $2 million in pro-Stevens television reservations from a pro-Israel super PAC—has drawn counter-messaging from El-Sayed’s side. McMorrow remains a distant third in both polling averages and market pricing ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$643,371
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abdul El-Sayed" at 69%, followed by "Haley Stevens" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $643.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Abdul El-Sayed" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Haley Stevens" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.