The Victorian state election on November 28, 2026, features a fragmented contest where the Liberal–National Coalition holds a clear lead in trader pricing at 63 percent. Recent polls show the Coalition extending its primary-vote advantage to around 30–32 percent while Labor slips to third place behind a surging One Nation on 22–27 percent. This shift reflects twelve years of Labor incumbency, sharply negative approval ratings for Premier Jacinta Allan, and an “it’s time” dynamic that has boosted minor-party support, particularly in regional seats. Preference flows remain uncertain given the three-way primary split, yet the Coalition’s stronger two-party-preferred position against Labor underpins the current market consensus. One Nation at 10 percent and Labor at 15 percent capture the risk that minor parties fragment the vote without securing government. Greens remain marginal at 1.5 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
63%
Labor
19%
One Nation
10%
Greens
2%
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$1,631 Vol.
63%
Labor
$341 Vol.
19%
One Nation
$72 Vol.
10%
Greens
$119 Vol.
2%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The Victorian state election on November 28, 2026, features a fragmented contest where the Liberal–National Coalition holds a clear lead in trader pricing at 63 percent. Recent polls show the Coalition extending its primary-vote advantage to around 30–32 percent while Labor slips to third place behind a surging One Nation on 22–27 percent. This shift reflects twelve years of Labor incumbency, sharply negative approval ratings for Premier Jacinta Allan, and an “it’s time” dynamic that has boosted minor-party support, particularly in regional seats. Preference flows remain uncertain given the three-way primary split, yet the Coalition’s stronger two-party-preferred position against Labor underpins the current market consensus. One Nation at 10 percent and Labor at 15 percent capture the risk that minor parties fragment the vote without securing government. Greens remain marginal at 1.5 percent.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,161End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The Victorian state election on November 28, 2026, features a fragmented contest where the Liberal–National Coalition holds a clear lead in trader pricing at 63 percent. Recent polls show the Coalition extending its primary-vote advantage to around 30–32 percent while Labor slips to third place behind a surging One Nation on 22–27 percent. This shift reflects twelve years of Labor incumbency, sharply negative approval ratings for Premier Jacinta Allan, and an “it’s time” dynamic that has boosted minor-party support, particularly in regional seats. Preference flows remain uncertain given the three-way primary split, yet the Coalition’s stronger two-party-preferred position against Labor underpins the current market consensus. One Nation at 10 percent and Labor at 15 percent capture the risk that minor parties fragment the vote without securing government. Greens remain marginal at 1.5 percent.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,161End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Victorian state election on November 28, 2026, features a fragmented contest where the Liberal–National Coalition holds a clear lead in trader pricing at 63 percent. Recent polls show the Coalition extending its primary-vote advantage to around 30–32 percent while Labor slips to third place behind a surging One Nation on 22–27 percent. This shift reflects twelve years of Labor incumbency, sharply negative approval ratings for Premier Jacinta Allan, and an “it’s time” dynamic that has boosted minor-party support, particularly in regional seats. Preference flows remain uncertain given the three-way primary split, yet the Coalition’s stronger two-party-preferred position against Labor underpins the current market consensus. One Nation at 10 percent and Labor at 15 percent capture the risk that minor parties fragment the vote without securing government. Greens remain marginal at 1.5 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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