Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a lead of roughly 50-54 percent against the incumbent right-wing bloc of Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats support at 44-47 percent. The narrow gap has tightened slightly since midsummer, yet remains wide enough that only substantial late shifts could alter the outcome. The Liberals’ consistent sub-4 percent readings threaten the right bloc’s seat math, while coalition arithmetic, historical precedent for minority or externally supported governments, and post-election negotiations will determine final participation. No snap election or major scandal has disrupted the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jan 31, 2027
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
91%
Christian Democrats (KD)
65%
Green Party (MP)
56%
Left Party (V)
44%
Centre Party (C)
44%
Moderate Party (M)
23%
Liberals (L)
22%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
8%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
4%
$4,768 Vol.
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
$2,035 Vol.
91%
Christian Democrats (KD)
$628 Vol.
65%
Green Party (MP)
$140 Vol.
56%
Left Party (V)
$191 Vol.
44%
Centre Party (C)
$390 Vol.
44%
Moderate Party (M)
$43 Vol.
23%
Liberals (L)
$507 Vol.
22%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
$807 Vol.
8%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
$26 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a lead of roughly 50-54 percent against the incumbent right-wing bloc of Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats support at 44-47 percent. The narrow gap has tightened slightly since midsummer, yet remains wide enough that only substantial late shifts could alter the outcome. The Liberals’ consistent sub-4 percent readings threaten the right bloc’s seat math, while coalition arithmetic, historical precedent for minority or externally supported governments, and post-election negotiations will determine final participation. No snap election or major scandal has disrupted the timeline.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$4,768End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a lead of roughly 50-54 percent against the incumbent right-wing bloc of Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats support at 44-47 percent. The narrow gap has tightened slightly since midsummer, yet remains wide enough that only substantial late shifts could alter the outcome. The Liberals’ consistent sub-4 percent readings threaten the right bloc’s seat math, while coalition arithmetic, historical precedent for minority or externally supported governments, and post-election negotiations will determine final participation. No snap election or major scandal has disrupted the timeline.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volume
$4,768End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a lead of roughly 50-54 percent against the incumbent right-wing bloc of Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats support at 44-47 percent. The narrow gap has tightened slightly since midsummer, yet remains wide enough that only substantial late shifts could alter the outcome. The Liberals’ consistent sub-4 percent readings threaten the right bloc’s seat math, while coalition arithmetic, historical precedent for minority or externally supported governments, and post-election negotiations will determine final participation. No snap election or major scandal has disrupted the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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