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icon for Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place
Politics·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place

icon for Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place
Politics·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place

James Fishback 98.4%

Paul Renner 22%

Byron Donalds 4.8%

Daniel Nokovich 4.8%

Polymarket

$1,741 Vol.

James Fishback 98.4%

Paul Renner 22%

Byron Donalds 4.8%

Daniel Nokovich 4.8%

Polymarket

$1,741 Vol.

icon for James Fishback

James Fishback

$20 Vol.

98%

icon for Paul Renner

Paul Renner

$34 Vol.

22%

icon for Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for Daniel Nokovich

Daniel Nokovich

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for James Walker Shaw

James Walker Shaw

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for Jay Collins

Jay Collins

$226 Vol.

3%

icon for Jim Holcomb

Jim Holcomb

$119 Vol.

1%

icon for Arthur Joseph McCaffrey

Arthur Joseph McCaffrey

$169 Vol.

1%

icon for Rachel Rodriguez

Rachel Rodriguez

$155 Vol.

1%

icon for Caneste Succe

Caneste Succe

$169 Vol.

1%

icon for Bobby Williams

Bobby Williams

$169 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the just-concluded August 18 Republican primary for Florida governor, positioning the race for second and third among a fragmented field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, investor James Fishback, and former House Speaker Paul Renner. Trader consensus assigns Fishback the highest probability for third place due to consistent polling averages placing him ahead of Renner and lower-tier candidates, bolstered by his mobilization of online supporters and visibility in the final weeks. Collins’s branding as the DeSantis-aligned option and attempts to challenge ballot access have not displaced Fishback from the middle tier. Late vote tabulation, turnout differentials among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the remaining precincts could still reorder the final margins behind Donalds.

This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$1,741
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the just-concluded August 18 Republican primary for Florida governor, positioning the race for second and third among a fragmented field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, investor James Fishback, and former House Speaker Paul Renner. Trader consensus assigns Fishback the highest probability for third place due to consistent polling averages placing him ahead of Renner and lower-tier candidates, bolstered by his mobilization of online supporters and visibility in the final weeks. Collins’s branding as the DeSantis-aligned option and attempts to challenge ballot access have not displaced Fishback from the middle tier. Late vote tabulation, turnout differentials among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the remaining precincts could still reorder the final margins behind Donalds.

This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$1,741
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who places third in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Fishback" at 98%, followed by "Paul Renner" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place" is "James Fishback" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paul Renner" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Third Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.