The tightly clustered probabilities around 41–44.5% across turnout bins reflect trader uncertainty over 2026 midterm participation in a race where Democratic incumbent Mark Warner faces Republican Bert Mizusawa in a contest rated Solid Democrat by major forecasters. Historical Virginia midterm totals have varied significantly with national conditions, early voting access, and party mobilization, while recent primary results and April redistricting referendum data show uneven enthusiasm that has not yet produced a clear general-election signal. Factors such as post-2024 economic sentiment, campaign outreach intensity, and voter registration trends could shift totals in either direction before November 3, sustaining the balanced market view until clearer indicators emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVirginia Senate Election: Turnout
Virginia Senate Election: Turnout
2.75M-3M 44%
3M-3.25M 44%
3.5M-3.75M 44%
3.25M-3.5M 43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<2.5M
41%
2.5M-2.75M
41%
2.75M-3M
44%
3M-3.25M
44%
3.25M-3.5M
43%
3.5M-3.75M
44%
3.75M-4M
41%
4M+
43%
2.75M-3M 44%
3M-3.25M 44%
3.5M-3.75M 44%
3.25M-3.5M 43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<2.5M
$0 Vol.
41%
2.5M-2.75M
$0 Vol.
41%
2.75M-3M
$0 Vol.
44%
3M-3.25M
$0 Vol.
44%
3.25M-3.5M
$0 Vol.
43%
3.5M-3.75M
$0 Vol.
44%
3.75M-4M
$0 Vol.
41%
4M+
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tightly clustered probabilities around 41–44.5% across turnout bins reflect trader uncertainty over 2026 midterm participation in a race where Democratic incumbent Mark Warner faces Republican Bert Mizusawa in a contest rated Solid Democrat by major forecasters. Historical Virginia midterm totals have varied significantly with national conditions, early voting access, and party mobilization, while recent primary results and April redistricting referendum data show uneven enthusiasm that has not yet produced a clear general-election signal. Factors such as post-2024 economic sentiment, campaign outreach intensity, and voter registration trends could shift totals in either direction before November 3, sustaining the balanced market view until clearer indicators emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tightly clustered probabilities around 41–44.5% across turnout bins reflect trader uncertainty over 2026 midterm participation in a race where Democratic incumbent Mark Warner faces Republican Bert Mizusawa in a contest rated Solid Democrat by major forecasters. Historical Virginia midterm totals have varied significantly with national conditions, early voting access, and party mobilization, while recent primary results and April redistricting referendum data show uneven enthusiasm that has not yet produced a clear general-election signal. Factors such as post-2024 economic sentiment, campaign outreach intensity, and voter registration trends could shift totals in either direction before November 3, sustaining the balanced market view until clearer indicators emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly clustered probabilities around 41–44.5% across turnout bins reflect trader uncertainty over 2026 midterm participation in a race where Democratic incumbent Mark Warner faces Republican Bert Mizusawa in a contest rated Solid Democrat by major forecasters. Historical Virginia midterm totals have varied significantly with national conditions, early voting access, and party mobilization, while recent primary results and April redistricting referendum data show uneven enthusiasm that has not yet produced a clear general-election signal. Factors such as post-2024 economic sentiment, campaign outreach intensity, and voter registration trends could shift totals in either direction before November 3, sustaining the balanced market view until clearer indicators emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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