Skip to main content
icon for FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Chalifoux 44%

Dan Green 16%

Justin Story <1%

Steve Rance <1%

Polymarket

$46,990 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux 44%

Dan Green 16%

Justin Story <1%

Steve Rance <1%

Polymarket

$46,990 Vol.

icon for Thomas Chalifoux

Thomas Chalifoux

$15,233 Vol.

44%

icon for Dan Green

Dan Green

$3,167 Vol.

16%

icon for Justin Story

Justin Story

$9,287 Vol.

1%

icon for Steve Rance

Steve Rance

$690 Vol.

1%

icon for Marcus Carter

Marcus Carter

$1,962 Vol.

1%

icon for Jorge Malavet

Jorge Malavet

$3,289 Vol.

<1%

icon for Howard Steven Rance

Howard Steven Rance

$8,523 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Martinez

Jorge Martinez

$3,346 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ben Butler

Ben Butler

$1,494 Vol.

62%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The redrawn Florida's 9th Congressional District, now favoring Republicans following the May 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has drawn a crowded primary field ahead of the August 18 vote. Steve Rance and Thomas Chalifoux remain closely matched in trader consensus due to their respective profiles—Rance's military background and Chalifoux's prior nomination and stronger fundraising totals—while lower-polling candidates like Justin Story, Marcus Carter, and Jorge Malavet trail with limited visibility or resources. The tight spread reflects limited polling data, similar levels of establishment support, and uncertainty over which contender can consolidate backing in the final weeks before the primary. Upcoming endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in campaign spending could widen the gap ahead of election night.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$46,990
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The redrawn Florida's 9th Congressional District, now favoring Republicans following the May 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, has drawn a crowded primary field ahead of the August 18 vote. Steve Rance and Thomas Chalifoux remain closely matched in trader consensus due to their respective profiles—Rance's military background and Chalifoux's prior nomination and stronger fundraising totals—while lower-polling candidates like Justin Story, Marcus Carter, and Jorge Malavet trail with limited visibility or resources. The tight spread reflects limited polling data, similar levels of establishment support, and uncertainty over which contender can consolidate backing in the final weeks before the primary. Upcoming endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in campaign spending could widen the gap ahead of election night.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$46,990
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

96%
icon for Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

75%
icon for Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

39%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben Butler" at 62%, followed by "Thomas Chalifoux" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $47K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ben Butler" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.