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Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 42%

Jim Schwartzel 16.2%

Madison Cawthorn 13.8%

Jim Oberweis 7.8%

Polymarket

$21,855 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 42%

Jim Schwartzel 16.2%

Madison Cawthorn 13.8%

Jim Oberweis 7.8%

Polymarket

$21,855 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$16,396 Vol.

42%

Jim Schwartzel

$141 Vol.

16%

Madison Cawthorn

$1,292 Vol.

14%

Jim Oberweis

$2,512 Vol.

8%

Spencer Roach

$656 Vol.

2%

Bob Rommel

$857 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary positions Catalina Lauf as the frontrunner at 40.5%, propelled by her $975,000 in first-quarter receipts through March 31—reported April 13—and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna as a "fierce America First fighter," bolstering her Trump-aligned appeal in the crowded field left open by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial run. Local broadcaster Jim Schwartzel follows at 17.5%, leveraging $1.47 million cash on hand and Southwest Florida roots, despite a recent radio station controversy misidentifying an opponent. Madison Cawthorn garners 15% on prior congressional name recognition and Johnny Fratto's February 25 endorsement after withdrawing. Jim Oberweis lags at 7.4% despite topping receipts at $4.36 million, hindered by Illinois outsider status. No polls exist; filing deadline passed April 24 ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,855
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary positions Catalina Lauf as the frontrunner at 40.5%, propelled by her $975,000 in first-quarter receipts through March 31—reported April 13—and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna as a "fierce America First fighter," bolstering her Trump-aligned appeal in the crowded field left open by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial run. Local broadcaster Jim Schwartzel follows at 17.5%, leveraging $1.47 million cash on hand and Southwest Florida roots, despite a recent radio station controversy misidentifying an opponent. Madison Cawthorn garners 15% on prior congressional name recognition and Johnny Fratto's February 25 endorsement after withdrawing. Jim Oberweis lags at 7.4% despite topping receipts at $4.36 million, hindered by Illinois outsider status. No polls exist; filing deadline passed April 24 ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,855
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 42%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $21.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.