Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced exit polls and early projections showing the Social Democratic-led center-left bloc securing a narrow 175-174 seat majority in the 349-seat Riksdag over the incumbent right-wing alliance. The Social Democrats emerged as the largest single party at roughly 28 percent, while the Sweden Democrats posted their first notable decline in support. These results, released on election night, drove trader consensus toward the Social Democrats by reflecting a last-minute shift in bloc preferences after a tightening campaign. Final seat allocation remains subject to the completion of vote counting and subsequent coalition negotiations among the four opposition parties, any of which could still alter the narrow projected margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPoll trend shows Social Democrats leading with 32.4% ahead of September election
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 97%2%
Recent polling data confirmed the Social Democrats as the frontrunner with a significant lead over other parties, supporting the market's high pricing for their victory in the upcoming election.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson Faces Internal Party Backlash and Leadership Questions
Moderate Party (M) dips to 0%3%
Reports emerged during the Almedalen political festival that senior Moderates were questioning Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's leadership due to poor polling and a minor family scandal, driving the Moderate Party's market price down to 0%.










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