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icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

Alvin Lafu Sika 38%

Lei Paasi 28%

'Olioni Manoa 27%

Samiuela Vea 27%

Polymarket
NEW

Alvin Lafu Sika 38%

Lei Paasi 28%

'Olioni Manoa 27%

Samiuela Vea 27%

Polymarket
NEW

Alvin Lafu Sika

$29 Vol.

38%

Lei Paasi

$29 Vol.

28%

'Olioni Manoa

$29 Vol.

27%

Samiuela Vea

$29 Vol.

27%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$29 Vol.

25%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$29 Vol.

25%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$29 Vol.

24%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$29 Vol.

22%

Mounu Uaisele

$279 Vol.

13%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$512
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$512
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 39%, followed by "Lei Paasi" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lei Paasi" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.