Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied on party vote around 29-30 percent each, with the November 7 election under MMP producing similar projected seat totals for the two major parties amid gains for ACT, Greens, and NZ First. This volatility, including National slipping below 30 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey while Labour trails in some others, sustains the narrow contest for second-most seats. Trader consensus favors National by a slim margin, reflecting its incumbency and coalition positioning, yet Labour’s electorate strength and bloc dynamics could shift outcomes with any late swing in undecided voters or minor-party thresholds. Scheduled campaign events through October remain the main near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 55%
Labour Party 45%
New Zealand First Party 1.8%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$20,299 Vol.
$20,299 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
55%
Labour Party
45%
New Zealand First Party
2%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Green Party
<1%
National Party 55%
Labour Party 45%
New Zealand First Party 1.8%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$20,299 Vol.
$20,299 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
$9,830 Vol.
55%
Labour Party
$5,802 Vol.
45%
New Zealand First Party
$1,372 Vol.
2%
ACT New Zealand
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,384 Vol.
<1%
Green Party
$604 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied on party vote around 29-30 percent each, with the November 7 election under MMP producing similar projected seat totals for the two major parties amid gains for ACT, Greens, and NZ First. This volatility, including National slipping below 30 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey while Labour trails in some others, sustains the narrow contest for second-most seats. Trader consensus favors National by a slim margin, reflecting its incumbency and coalition positioning, yet Labour’s electorate strength and bloc dynamics could shift outcomes with any late swing in undecided voters or minor-party thresholds. Scheduled campaign events through October remain the main near-term catalysts.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$20,299End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied on party vote around 29-30 percent each, with the November 7 election under MMP producing similar projected seat totals for the two major parties amid gains for ACT, Greens, and NZ First. This volatility, including National slipping below 30 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey while Labour trails in some others, sustains the narrow contest for second-most seats. Trader consensus favors National by a slim margin, reflecting its incumbency and coalition positioning, yet Labour’s electorate strength and bloc dynamics could shift outcomes with any late swing in undecided voters or minor-party thresholds. Scheduled campaign events through October remain the main near-term catalysts.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$20,299End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied on party vote around 29-30 percent each, with the November 7 election under MMP producing similar projected seat totals for the two major parties amid gains for ACT, Greens, and NZ First. This volatility, including National slipping below 30 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey while Labour trails in some others, sustains the narrow contest for second-most seats. Trader consensus favors National by a slim margin, reflecting its incumbency and coalition positioning, yet Labour’s electorate strength and bloc dynamics could shift outcomes with any late swing in undecided voters or minor-party thresholds. Scheduled campaign events through October remain the main near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
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