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icon for Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

icon for Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Polymarket

$2,151,522 Vol.

Polymarket

$2,151,522 Vol.

icon for Democratic

Democratic

$1,007,476 Vol.

61%

icon for Republican

Republican

$1,144,046 Vol.

37%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The Democratic edge in trader pricing for the 2028 presidential race reflects the open-seat dynamics after President Trump's term limit, historical patterns favoring the out-party in such contests, and early general-election polling where candidates like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris often edge or tie Republican frontrunner JD Vance. Republicans have consolidated early around Vice President Vance in primary surveys, yet broader sentiment incorporates uncertainty ahead of the November 2026 midterms, which could reshape party positioning through congressional results and turnout trends. No major late-breaking developments have yet altered the 60-40 split in implied probabilities.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$2,151,522
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The Democratic edge in trader pricing for the 2028 presidential race reflects the open-seat dynamics after President Trump's term limit, historical patterns favoring the out-party in such contests, and early general-election polling where candidates like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris often edge or tie Republican frontrunner JD Vance. Republicans have consolidated early around Vice President Vance in primary surveys, yet broader sentiment incorporates uncertainty ahead of the November 2026 midterms, which could reshape party positioning through congressional results and turnout trends. No major late-breaking developments have yet altered the 60-40 split in implied probabilities.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$2,151,522
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democratic" at 61%, followed by "Republican" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is "Democratic" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.