Washington voters face Initiative 645 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure’s high “No” odds reflect organized opposition from the governor, labor unions, and Democratic leaders, who highlight dedicated revenue for K-12 education, the Working Families Tax Credit expansion, small-business relief, and sales-tax exemptions. Historical precedent supports retention, as voters rejected a 2024 effort to repeal the existing capital gains tax. Opponents also warn that the initiative’s broad language could disrupt other revenue tools, while campaign finance shows substantial spending against repeal. Legal challenges to the underlying tax continue separately but have not altered ballot dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters face Initiative 645 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure’s high “No” odds reflect organized opposition from the governor, labor unions, and Democratic leaders, who highlight dedicated revenue for K-12 education, the Working Families Tax Credit expansion, small-business relief, and sales-tax exemptions. Historical precedent supports retention, as voters rejected a 2024 effort to repeal the existing capital gains tax. Opponents also warn that the initiative’s broad language could disrupt other revenue tools, while campaign finance shows substantial spending against repeal. Legal challenges to the underlying tax continue separately but have not altered ballot dynamics.
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$166End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sos.wa.gov/electionsResolver
0x65070BE91...Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters face Initiative 645 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure’s high “No” odds reflect organized opposition from the governor, labor unions, and Democratic leaders, who highlight dedicated revenue for K-12 education, the Working Families Tax Credit expansion, small-business relief, and sales-tax exemptions. Historical precedent supports retention, as voters rejected a 2024 effort to repeal the existing capital gains tax. Opponents also warn that the initiative’s broad language could disrupt other revenue tools, while campaign finance shows substantial spending against repeal. Legal challenges to the underlying tax continue separately but have not altered ballot dynamics.
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$166End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sos.wa.gov/electionsResolver
0x65070BE91...Washington voters face Initiative 645 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure’s high “No” odds reflect organized opposition from the governor, labor unions, and Democratic leaders, who highlight dedicated revenue for K-12 education, the Working Families Tax Credit expansion, small-business relief, and sales-tax exemptions. Historical precedent supports retention, as voters rejected a 2024 effort to repeal the existing capital gains tax. Opponents also warn that the initiative’s broad language could disrupt other revenue tools, while campaign finance shows substantial spending against repeal. Legal challenges to the underlying tax continue separately but have not altered ballot dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions