Missouri's 5th Congressional District race remains tightly contested on prediction markets, with trader consensus slightly favoring Democrats at 37.5% over Republicans at 34.5%, reflecting the new GOP-drawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court on March 24 in a 4-3 ruling. This mid-decade redistricting extends the Kansas City-based district into rural Republican strongholds, challenging long-serving incumbent Emanuel Cleaver's re-election bid amid a crowded GOP primary featuring state Sen. Rick Brattin, Jackson County legislator Sean Smith, and others ahead of the August 4 primaries. Odds stay close due to primary volatility, Cleaver's incumbency advantages, fundraising edges, and ongoing efforts for a voter referendum to repeal the map, with national midterm trends and turnout in swing areas as key separators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
30%
Democratic Party
42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,057 Vol.
30%
Democratic Party
$742 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th Congressional District race remains tightly contested on prediction markets, with trader consensus slightly favoring Democrats at 37.5% over Republicans at 34.5%, reflecting the new GOP-drawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court on March 24 in a 4-3 ruling. This mid-decade redistricting extends the Kansas City-based district into rural Republican strongholds, challenging long-serving incumbent Emanuel Cleaver's re-election bid amid a crowded GOP primary featuring state Sen. Rick Brattin, Jackson County legislator Sean Smith, and others ahead of the August 4 primaries. Odds stay close due to primary volatility, Cleaver's incumbency advantages, fundraising edges, and ongoing efforts for a voter referendum to repeal the map, with national midterm trends and turnout in swing areas as key separators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$1,798End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th Congressional District race remains tightly contested on prediction markets, with trader consensus slightly favoring Democrats at 37.5% over Republicans at 34.5%, reflecting the new GOP-drawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court on March 24 in a 4-3 ruling. This mid-decade redistricting extends the Kansas City-based district into rural Republican strongholds, challenging long-serving incumbent Emanuel Cleaver's re-election bid amid a crowded GOP primary featuring state Sen. Rick Brattin, Jackson County legislator Sean Smith, and others ahead of the August 4 primaries. Odds stay close due to primary volatility, Cleaver's incumbency advantages, fundraising edges, and ongoing efforts for a voter referendum to repeal the map, with national midterm trends and turnout in swing areas as key separators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,798End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 5th Congressional District race remains tightly contested on prediction markets, with trader consensus slightly favoring Democrats at 37.5% over Republicans at 34.5%, reflecting the new GOP-drawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court on March 24 in a 4-3 ruling. This mid-decade redistricting extends the Kansas City-based district into rural Republican strongholds, challenging long-serving incumbent Emanuel Cleaver's re-election bid amid a crowded GOP primary featuring state Sen. Rick Brattin, Jackson County legislator Sean Smith, and others ahead of the August 4 primaries. Odds stay close due to primary volatility, Cleaver's incumbency advantages, fundraising edges, and ongoing efforts for a voter referendum to repeal the map, with national midterm trends and turnout in swing areas as key separators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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