Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a clear edge in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and her established record since 2013. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army veteran and small-business founder, narrowly won his primary. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Wagner’s 2024 reelection margin. Wellman’s campaign has emphasized local roots and veteran credentials but trails significantly in cash on hand, limiting visibility against Wagner’s financial and organizational advantages. Trader pricing aligns with these structural and resource factors rather than recent polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
$12,654 Vol.
$12,654 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
69%
Fred Wellman (D)
33%
$12,654 Vol.
$12,654 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ann Wagner (R)
$6,136 Vol.
69%
Fred Wellman (D)
$6,519 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a clear edge in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and her established record since 2013. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army veteran and small-business founder, narrowly won his primary. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Wagner’s 2024 reelection margin. Wellman’s campaign has emphasized local roots and veteran credentials but trails significantly in cash on hand, limiting visibility against Wagner’s financial and organizational advantages. Trader pricing aligns with these structural and resource factors rather than recent polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,654End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a clear edge in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and her established record since 2013. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army veteran and small-business founder, narrowly won his primary. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Wagner’s 2024 reelection margin. Wellman’s campaign has emphasized local roots and veteran credentials but trails significantly in cash on hand, limiting visibility against Wagner’s financial and organizational advantages. Trader pricing aligns with these structural and resource factors rather than recent polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,654End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a clear edge in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and her established record since 2013. Wagner secured her party’s nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman, a U.S. Army veteran and small-business founder, narrowly won his primary. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Wagner’s 2024 reelection margin. Wellman’s campaign has emphasized local roots and veteran credentials but trails significantly in cash on hand, limiting visibility against Wagner’s financial and organizational advantages. Trader pricing aligns with these structural and resource factors rather than recent polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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