Missouri's 1st congressional district, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt rooted in its urban voter base and historical election margins exceeding 70 percent for the party. Incumbent Democrat Wesley Bell, who secured the seat in 2024, holds a narrow lead in the August 4 Democratic primary against challenger Cori Bush, positioning the eventual nominee to face limited Republican opposition in the November general election. Trader consensus around a Democratic outcome reflects these structural factors, including fundraising advantages and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by low turnout, a major scandal, or significant redistricting changes, none of which appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$33,763 Vol.
$33,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
2%
$33,763 Vol.
$33,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,198 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$13,565 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st congressional district, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt rooted in its urban voter base and historical election margins exceeding 70 percent for the party. Incumbent Democrat Wesley Bell, who secured the seat in 2024, holds a narrow lead in the August 4 Democratic primary against challenger Cori Bush, positioning the eventual nominee to face limited Republican opposition in the November general election. Trader consensus around a Democratic outcome reflects these structural factors, including fundraising advantages and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by low turnout, a major scandal, or significant redistricting changes, none of which appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$33,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st congressional district, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt rooted in its urban voter base and historical election margins exceeding 70 percent for the party. Incumbent Democrat Wesley Bell, who secured the seat in 2024, holds a narrow lead in the August 4 Democratic primary against challenger Cori Bush, positioning the eventual nominee to face limited Republican opposition in the November general election. Trader consensus around a Democratic outcome reflects these structural factors, including fundraising advantages and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by low turnout, a major scandal, or significant redistricting changes, none of which appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 1st congressional district, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt rooted in its urban voter base and historical election margins exceeding 70 percent for the party. Incumbent Democrat Wesley Bell, who secured the seat in 2024, holds a narrow lead in the August 4 Democratic primary against challenger Cori Bush, positioning the eventual nominee to face limited Republican opposition in the November general election. Trader consensus around a Democratic outcome reflects these structural factors, including fundraising advantages and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by low turnout, a major scandal, or significant redistricting changes, none of which appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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