Wesley Bell's status as the incumbent Democrat in Missouri's 1st congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean and consistent history of large margins for the party nominee, drives the market's heavy weighting toward his victory. Bell secured renomination in the August 2026 Democratic primary with 59 percent against former Representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, emerged from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited general-election competition and the district's voter composition. A late scandal, significant health development, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though such events remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$36,824 Vol.
$36,824 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Wesley Bell (D)
98%
Paul Berry (R)
1%
$36,824 Vol.
$36,824 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Wesley Bell (D)
$22,853 Vol.
98%
Paul Berry (R)
$13,971 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell's status as the incumbent Democrat in Missouri's 1st congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean and consistent history of large margins for the party nominee, drives the market's heavy weighting toward his victory. Bell secured renomination in the August 2026 Democratic primary with 59 percent against former Representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, emerged from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited general-election competition and the district's voter composition. A late scandal, significant health development, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though such events remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,824End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell's status as the incumbent Democrat in Missouri's 1st congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean and consistent history of large margins for the party nominee, drives the market's heavy weighting toward his victory. Bell secured renomination in the August 2026 Democratic primary with 59 percent against former Representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, emerged from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited general-election competition and the district's voter composition. A late scandal, significant health development, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though such events remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,824End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wesley Bell's status as the incumbent Democrat in Missouri's 1st congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean and consistent history of large margins for the party nominee, drives the market's heavy weighting toward his victory. Bell secured renomination in the August 2026 Democratic primary with 59 percent against former Representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, emerged from a low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited general-election competition and the district's voter composition. A late scandal, significant health development, or unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though such events remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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