Wesley Bell, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, secured a decisive primary victory on August 4, 2026, defeating former Representative Cori Bush by nearly 23 points in Missouri's 1st congressional district. All major forecasters rate the St. Louis-area seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its longstanding partisan voting index and Bell's 76% general election margin in the prior cycle. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate who narrowly won his low-turnout primary, faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and name recognition in a district that has not elected a Republican in decades. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major unforeseen event such as a candidate health issue or late scandal before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$36,824 Vol.
$36,824 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Wesley Bell (D)
99%
Paul Berry (R)
1%
$36,824 Vol.
$36,824 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Wesley Bell (D)
$22,853 Vol.
99%
Paul Berry (R)
$13,971 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, secured a decisive primary victory on August 4, 2026, defeating former Representative Cori Bush by nearly 23 points in Missouri's 1st congressional district. All major forecasters rate the St. Louis-area seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its longstanding partisan voting index and Bell's 76% general election margin in the prior cycle. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate who narrowly won his low-turnout primary, faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and name recognition in a district that has not elected a Republican in decades. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major unforeseen event such as a candidate health issue or late scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,824End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, secured a decisive primary victory on August 4, 2026, defeating former Representative Cori Bush by nearly 23 points in Missouri's 1st congressional district. All major forecasters rate the St. Louis-area seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its longstanding partisan voting index and Bell's 76% general election margin in the prior cycle. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate who narrowly won his low-turnout primary, faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and name recognition in a district that has not elected a Republican in decades. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major unforeseen event such as a candidate health issue or late scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,824End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wesley Bell, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, secured a decisive primary victory on August 4, 2026, defeating former Representative Cori Bush by nearly 23 points in Missouri's 1st congressional district. All major forecasters rate the St. Louis-area seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its longstanding partisan voting index and Bell's 76% general election margin in the prior cycle. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate who narrowly won his low-turnout primary, faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and name recognition in a district that has not elected a Republican in decades. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major unforeseen event such as a candidate health issue or late scandal before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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