Missouri’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Partisan Voting Index near D+29 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell holds a fundraising and organizational edge heading into the August 4 Democratic primary against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican primary candidates face structural barriers in a district where general-election forecasts from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing in November 2026, consistent with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or redistricting changes that would alter the district’s composition before Election Day. A late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow margins, yet historical turnout patterns and the current candidate field limit realistic paths to a Republican general-election victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,823 Vol.
$23,823 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$23,823 Vol.
$23,823 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,674 Vol.
94%
共和党
$10,149 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Partisan Voting Index near D+29 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell holds a fundraising and organizational edge heading into the August 4 Democratic primary against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican primary candidates face structural barriers in a district where general-election forecasts from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing in November 2026, consistent with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or redistricting changes that would alter the district’s composition before Election Day. A late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow margins, yet historical turnout patterns and the current candidate field limit realistic paths to a Republican general-election victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$23,823終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Partisan Voting Index near D+29 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell holds a fundraising and organizational edge heading into the August 4 Democratic primary against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican primary candidates face structural barriers in a district where general-election forecasts from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing in November 2026, consistent with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or redistricting changes that would alter the district’s composition before Election Day. A late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow margins, yet historical turnout patterns and the current candidate field limit realistic paths to a Republican general-election victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$23,823終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Partisan Voting Index near D+29 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell holds a fundraising and organizational edge heading into the August 4 Democratic primary against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican primary candidates face structural barriers in a district where general-election forecasts from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing in November 2026, consistent with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or redistricting changes that would alter the district’s composition before Election Day. A late primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow margins, yet historical turnout patterns and the current candidate field limit realistic paths to a Republican general-election victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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